WDC Western Digital Corporation
Western Digital Corporation (WDC) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
In the buy zone, rising on both timeframes
Price is sitting on the lower trend line — the level that has repeatedly held.
Read from the last 12 months of history we hold: rising, drifting more than +100% a year. The target of US$511.85 is below the nearest ceiling (US$1,478), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$461.34 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 12 months read from
- US$462.29 – US$1,483 Rising channel, more than +100% a year
- Position in that channel
- -4% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -43% from US$746.3918 June 2026 → 14 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 2 Computer Hardware peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 0%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 90% of 8 comparable falls came back, typically in 92 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 43% from 746.38 to 427.06 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight on Western Digital, Raises Price Target to $650”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 43% here have come back to the old high 90% of the time (8 comparable falls), typically in 92 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 764.91 within 91 days, reached 90% of the time in 8 comparable falls — about 0.87% a day held.
Reported at the time: Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight on Western Digital, Raises Price Target to $650 — 15 June 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (12 months)
- Lower trend line (12 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$417.19
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$465.32; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$511.85
by 29 Sept 2026
Projected move
22.7%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 3 touches on the ceiling, 3 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor — the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at — 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 3 times so far, reaching target 33% of the time — too few to mean much on its own. The sell price comes from where this stock is projected to be, not from a minimum worth taking: the fitted path reaches more than 30% above the entry within 90 days, and of the sizes that path supports, 10% is the one that has returned the most per day of money tied up here — measured over 146 stretches of this stock’s own history, since the published entry itself is too rare here to size a target from, reached 85% of the time, typically in 15 days. Smaller sizes got there sooner but paid less for the weeks they used; larger ones need a break above the projected ceiling, which is not the base case. The date published is whichever is later: that typical time, or the day the projected path itself reaches the price. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 62%
- Fitted
- 14 Sept 2026
About Western Digital Corporation
Western Digital Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets a broad range of data storage devices and software solutions across the United States, China, Hong Kong, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the rest of Asia, serving an international market. The company's product lineup includes client devices such as hard disk drives (HDDs) and solid-state drives (SSDs) for computing platforms like desktops, notebooks, smart video systems, gaming consoles, and set-top boxes. They also provide flash-based embedded storage solutions for mobile phones, tablets, laptops, and various portable and wearable technologies, extending into automotive, Internet of Things (IoT), industrial, and connected home applications. Additionally, Western Digital produces flash-based memory wafers. For data centers, their offerings comprise enterprise helium hard drives and sophisticated flash-based SSDs, often bundled with software tailored for enterprise servers, online transaction processing, data analysis, and other business applications. This segment also includes comprehensive data storage systems, tiered storage models, and various data storage platforms. Consumer-oriented client solutions consist of external HDDs in both mobile and desktop configurations, portable SSDs, and removable memory cards compatible with mobile phones, tablets, imaging systems, cameras, and smart video systems. Furthermore, they offer universal serial bus (USB) flash drives for computing and general consumer markets, alongside wireless drive products designed for on-the-go content backup and high-definition streaming of media and documents to tablets, smartphones, and PCs. Western Digital sells its diverse portfolio through original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), distributors, dealers, resellers, and retailers, utilizing its prominent G-Technology, SanDisk, and WD brands. Founded in 1970, the corporation is headquartered in San Jose, California.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Computer Hardware
- CEO
- Tiang Yew Tan
- Employees
- 40,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$161.13B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 2.18
- Avg volume
- 8.21M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 91.65-799.87
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.