VMC Vulcan Materials Company(Holding Company)
Vulcan Materials Company(Holding Company) (VMC) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Energy. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below, falling on both timeframes
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
The next few months are read from the last 9 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (44% against 62%). The last 12 months stay as context: falling, −6% a year. The target of US$333.36 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$315.29, from the last 9 months), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$277.24 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- US$277.24 – US$315.29 Falling channel, −12% a year
- 12 months
- US$277.07 – US$325.08 Falling channel, −6% a year
- Position in that channel
- -87% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -24% from US$328.4210 Feb 2026 → 9 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 2 Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 1%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 93% of 12 comparable falls came back, typically in 37 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 24% from 328.42 to 249.80 by September 2026, and has regained 1% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Vulcan Materials Increases Quarterly Dividend From $0.49/Share To $0.52/Share”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 24% here have come back to the old high 93% of the time (12 comparable falls), typically in 37 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 333.36 within 30 days, reached 93% of the time in 12 comparable falls — about 1.10% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Vulcan Materials Increases Quarterly Dividend From $0.49/Share To $0.52/Share — 13 Feb 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$244.30
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$250.57; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$333.36
by 15 Oct 2026
Projected move
36.5%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 24% from 328.42 to 249.80 by September 2026, and has regained 1% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Vulcan Materials Increases Quarterly Dividend From $0.49/Share To $0.52/Share”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 24% here have come back to the old high 93% of the time (12 comparable falls), typically in 37 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 333.36 within 30 days, reached 93% of the time in 12 comparable falls — about 1.10% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 12 comparable falls in Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels), 93% were back at the old high within 37 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 6% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 328.42 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 2
- Lower line touches
- 2
- Fit confidence
- 62%
- Fitted
- 15 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.