USO United States Oil Fund, LP
United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Financial Services. Listed on UNKNOWN. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, rising on both timeframes
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
The next few months are read from the last 9 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (30% against 52%). The last 12 months stay as context: rising, more than +100% a year. The nearest ceiling overhead is US$186.87, from the last 12 months. What would overturn this: a close below US$128.54 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- US$128.54 – US$187.00 Rising channel, more than +100% a year
- Position in that channel
- 47% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -32% from US$152.9619 May 2026 → 1 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company12 of 27 Asset Management peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 86%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 68% of 57 comparable falls came back, typically in 61 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in May 2026: price fell 32% from 152.96 to 103.25 by July 2026, and has regained 86% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “White House Official Said Trump, Xi Agreed Strait Of Hormuz Must Remain Open, China Opposed Strait Militarization, Agreed Iran Can Never Have Nuclear Weapon”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 32% here have come back to the old high 68% of the time (57 comparable falls), typically in 61 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it.
Reported at the time: White House Official Said Trump, Xi Agreed Strait Of Hormuz Must Remain Open, China Opposed Strait Militarization, Agreed Iran Can Never Have Nuclear Weapon — 14 May 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
No published call today because price has already run past what this setup aims at, so there is nothing left of the move to buy. No alerts are sent. The buy and target below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy at or below
US$130.20
level as at 17 Sept 2026
Our target
US$218.34
by 16 Dec 2026
Projected move
67.7%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 2
- Fit confidence
- 52%
- Fitted
- 8 Sept 2026
About United States Oil Fund, LP
USO delivers its exposure to oil using near-term futures. USO gets exposure to oil using derivatives, like several oil ETPs. The fund predominately holds near-month-futures contracts on WTI, rolling into future contracts every month. This method is particularly sensitive to short-term changes in spot prices. USO held front month contracts until April 17, 2020, at which time following leeway in the prospectus, USO changed the exposure from holding specifically front-month contracts to holding predominantly front-month contracts, 30% next month and 15% contracts with further expiry. USO is structured as a commodities pool, so expect a K-1 at tax time. Long-term holders will be taxed on any gains even if they didn't sell shares.
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Asset Management
- CEO
- John Love
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$16.08B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 2.22
- Avg volume
- 7.23M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 65.99-154.08
- Exchange
- AMEX
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.