USAR USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Energy. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, rising on both timeframes
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
The next few months are read from the last 12 months, not the last 11 months: that channel fits this stock's recent turns at least as well (42% against 48%) and it is the one price is respecting now. The last 11 months stay as context: rising, +7% a year. The nearest ceiling overhead is US$18.97, from the last 11 months. What would overturn this: a close below US$13.22 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 11 months
- US$13.23 – US$18.97 Rising channel, +7% a year
- 12 months read from
- US$13.22 – US$21.79 Rising channel, +6% a year
- Position in that channel
- 22% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -69% from US$38.5813 Oct 2025 → 31 Dec 2025
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 2 Metal Mining peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Unsettled too close to a coin toss on the record to call
- Regained so far
- 14%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 46% of 385 comparable falls came back, typically in 167 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in October 2025: price fell 69% from 38.58 to 11.89 by December 2025, and has regained 14% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “China Hands Trump The Next 'America First' Stock—USA Rare Earth Soars On Export Curbs”. What happens next is not settled: falls of about 69% here have come back to the old high 46% of the time (385 comparable falls), typically in 167 days, which is too close to a coin toss to price a recovery from.
Reported at the time: China Hands Trump The Next 'America First' Stock—USA Rare Earth Soars On Export Curbs — 9 Oct 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (11 months)
- Lower trend line (11 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
No published call today because its projected path only reaches 0.5% above the entry within 90 days, under the 6.0% floor a call has to clear to be worth making. No alerts are sent. The buy and target below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy at or below
US$13.23
level as at 17 Sept 2026
Our target
US$13.61
by 16 Dec 2026
Projected move
2.8%
gross, before costs
Price is at or through our target.
- Upper line touches
- 2
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 48%
- Fitted
- 15 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.