UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Healthcare. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 10 comparable calls have settled; 80% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below, rising on both timeframes
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
The next few months are read from the last 9 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (38% against 61%). The last 12 months stay as context: rising, +29% a year. The nearest ceiling overhead is US$484.81, from the last 12 months. What would overturn this: a close below US$414.65 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- US$414.65 – US$507.25 Rising channel, +68% a year
- 12 months
- US$413.77 – US$484.81 Rising channel, +29% a year
- Position in that channel
- -42% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -61% from US$600.1711 Nov 2024 → 1 Aug 2025
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 2 Medical - Healthcare Plans peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Unsettled too close to a coin toss on the record to call
- Regained so far
- 41%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 52% of 492 comparable falls came back, typically in 153 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in November 2024: price fell 61% from 600.17 to 231.50 by August 2025, and has regained 41% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Unpacking the Latest Options Trading Trends in UnitedHealth Group”. What happens next is not settled: falls of about 61% here have come back to the old high 52% of the time (492 comparable falls), typically in 153 days, which is too close to a coin toss to price a recovery from.
Reported at the time: Unpacking the Latest Options Trading Trends in UnitedHealth Group — 11 Nov 2024
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
No published call today because price has broken 7.1% below the channel floor, which is a fall out of the trend rather than a dip within it. No alerts are sent. The buy and target below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy now
US$375.35
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$415.59; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$583.18
by 16 Dec 2026
Projected move
55.4%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 10 settled calls, of which 8 reached target (80%), with an average best move of 8.3%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 2
- Fit confidence
- 61%
- Fitted
- 15 Sept 2026
About UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) operates as a comprehensive healthcare enterprise across the United States, structuring its diverse services into four key divisions: UnitedHealthcare, Optum Health, Optum Insight, and Optum Rx. The UnitedHealthcare segment provides a wide array of health benefit plans and consumer-focused services. These offerings cater to a broad spectrum of clients, including large national corporations, public sector employers, mid-sized and small businesses, and individual consumers. It also delivers specialized health coverage and wellness programs tailored for individuals aged 50 and older, addressing their needs for preventive and acute care, chronic disease management, and other age-specific health issues. This division further encompasses Medicaid plans, children's health insurance, dental benefits, and various hospital and clinical services. Optum Health focuses on delivering direct healthcare solutions and management services. It facilitates access to networks of specialist care providers, offers health management programs, direct care delivery, consumer engagement initiatives, and financial services. Its diverse clientele includes individuals (served directly through care systems), employers, insurance payers, and government organizations. Optum Insight specializes in providing technology, information, and consulting services to the healthcare industry. Its offerings include software and data products, advisory consulting arrangements, and outsourced managed services. Clients span hospital systems, physicians, health plans, governmental bodies, life sciences companies, and other relevant organizations. Finally, Optum Rx handles the company's pharmaceutical care services. This segment manages retail pharmacy networks, provides home prescription delivery, and offers specialty and compounding pharmacy capabilities. Leveraging its purchasing power and clinical expertise, Optum Rx also develops advanced programs related to step therapy, formulary management, medication adherence, and integrated disease and drug therapy management. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, founded in 1977, has its corporate headquarters located in Minnetonka, Minnesota.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical - Healthcare Plans
- CEO
- Stephen J. Hemsley
- Employees
- 390,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- 60/100
- Profitability
- 25/100
- Financial health
- 42/100
- Cash generation
- 40/100
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$374.84B
- Enterprise value
- US$416.70B
- Beta
- 0.63
- Avg volume
- 6.70M
- Revenue per share
- 496.83
- Dividend yield
- 2.17%
- 52-week range
- 239.5-461.62
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- 26.54
- PEG
- -0.80
- Price / sales
- 0.83
- Price / book
- 3.58
- EV / EBITDA
- 16.17
- Gross margin
- 22.49%
- Operating margin
- 4.82%
- Net margin
- 3.14%
- Current ratio
- 1.24
- Quick ratio
- 1.24
- Debt / equity
- 0.70
- Interest cover
- 5.57
Income statement
| Year | Revenue | Gross profit | Operating income | Net income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$447.57B | US$82.92B | US$18.96B | US$12.06B | US$13.23 |
| 2024 | US$400.28B | US$89.40B | US$32.29B | US$14.40B | US$15.51 |
| 2023 | US$371.62B | US$90.96B | US$32.36B | US$22.38B | US$23.86 |
| 2022 | US$324.16B | US$79.62B | US$28.43B | US$20.12B | US$21.18 |
| 2021 | US$287.60B | US$69.65B | US$23.97B | US$17.29B | US$18.08 |
Balance sheet
| Year | Total assets | Total liabilities | Total equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$309.58B | US$207.88B | US$94.11B |
| 2024 | US$298.28B | US$195.69B | US$92.66B |
| 2023 | US$273.72B | US$174.80B | US$88.76B |
| 2022 | US$245.71B | US$159.36B | US$77.77B |
| 2021 | US$212.21B | US$135.73B | US$71.76B |
Cash flow
| Year | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$19.70B | US$16.07B | US$12.81B |
| 2024 | US$24.20B | US$20.70B | US$15.24B |
| 2023 | US$29.07B | US$25.68B | US$22.38B |
| 2022 | US$26.21B | US$23.40B | US$20.12B |
| 2021 | US$22.34B | US$19.89B | US$17.29B |
EPS forecasts
| Period | Est. EPS | Est. revenue | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$16.32 | US$447.86B | 21 |
| 2026 | US$19.72 | US$445.73B | 18 |
| 2027 | US$22.42 | US$458.63B | 19 |
| 2028 | US$26.22 | US$485.43B | 13 |
| 2029 | US$30.58 | US$506.18B | 11 |
| 2030 | US$34.29 | US$542.96B | 5 |
Analyst view
- Target (mean)
- US$473.89
- Target (high)
- US$529.00
- Target (low)
- US$373.00
- Strong buy
- 0
- Buy
- 43
- Hold
- 7
- Sell
- 2
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.