UMC United Microelectronics Corporation

Suggested path

Last close is our buy — the best price available now.

The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 38% from 27.62 to 17.11 by July 2026, and has regained 53% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 16 of 19 Semiconductors peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. The wire that week: “12 Information Technology Stocks Moving In Monday's Pre-Market Session”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 38% here have come back to the old high 81% of the time (46 comparable falls), typically in 81 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 28.01 within 41 days, reached 81% of the time in 46 comparable falls — about 0.57% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 46 comparable falls in Semiconductors, 81% were back at the old high within 81 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 16% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 27.62 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.

Upper line touches

3

Lower line touches

2

Fit confidence

53%

Fitted

10 Sept 2026