ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Consumer Cyclical. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
In the buy zone (provisional)
Price is sitting on the lower trend line — the level that has repeatedly held.
Read from the last 18 months of history we hold: rising, drifting +20% a year. The target of US$715.81 is below the nearest ceiling (US$1,002), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$522.97 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 18 months read from
- US$522.97 – US$1,002 Rising channel, +20% a year
- Position in that channel
- 2% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
Provisional: fitted to a short history, so treat the lines as a first read rather than a projection. No trade is suggested and alerts stay off until there is more data.
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -36% from US$706.9417 Feb 2026 → 17 June 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company2 of 8 Specialty Retail peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 37%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 75% of 10 comparable falls came back, typically in 104 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 36% from 706.94 to 450.66 by June 2026, and has regained 37% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “CNBC Halftime Report Final Trades: Apple, VICI Properties, Ulta Beauty, AstraZeneca PLC”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 36% here have come back to the old high 75% of the time (10 comparable falls), typically in 104 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 715.81 within 168 days, reached 75% of the time in 10 comparable falls — about 0.19% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: CNBC Halftime Report Final Trades: Apple, VICI Properties, Ulta Beauty, AstraZeneca PLC — 17 Feb 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (18 months)
- Lower trend line (18 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
The lines above are fitted to a short history, which is not a base we will project a published call from. The buy and target below are still this site's read of those lines.
Buy now
US$530.68
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$544.25; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$715.81
by 3 Mar 2027
Projected move
34.9%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
- Upper line touches
- 9
- Lower line touches
- 5
- Fit confidence
- 43%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. functions as a prominent beauty product retailer throughout the United States. Its physical locations feature a broad assortment of goods, including cosmetics, perfumes, skincare, haircare items, bath and body essentials, and professional salon styling instruments. Additionally, they provide a comprehensive suite of salon services, encompassing hair, skin, makeup, brow, and nail treatments. The company further offers its proprietary label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection for cosmetics, skincare, and bath items, alongside other Ulta Beauty branded merchandise and gift options. As of March 10, 2022, Ulta Beauty operated 1,308 retail stores across all 50 U.S. states. Its products are also available for purchase via its website, ulta.com, and through its mobile applications. Incorporated in 1990, the enterprise was initially known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc., before officially changing its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Its corporate base is located in Bolingbrook, Illinois.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- CEO
- Kecia L. Steelman
- Employees
- 65,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$23.16B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 0.85
- Avg volume
- 713.20K
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 443.6-714.97
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.