TSCO Tractor Supply Company
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Consumer Cyclical. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, falling on both timeframes
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
The next few months are read from the last 9 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (0% against 49%). The last 12 months stay as context: falling, −46% a year. The nearest ceiling overhead is US$33.92, from the last 9 months. What would overturn this: a close below US$29.87 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- US$29.87 – US$33.92 Falling channel, −55% a year
- 12 months
- US$29.86 – US$51.34 Falling channel, −46% a year
- Position in that channel
- 72% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -53% from US$61.1728 Aug 2025 → 3 June 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company2 of 8 Specialty Retail peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Unsettled too close to a coin toss on the record to call
- Regained so far
- 15%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 40% of 8 comparable falls came back, typically in 267 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in August 2025: price fell 53% from 61.17 to 28.95 by June 2026, and has regained 15% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. What happens next is not settled: falls of about 53% here have come back to the old high 40% of the time (8 comparable falls), typically in 267 days, which is too close to a coin toss to price a recovery from.
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
No published call today because its projected path only reaches 0.0% above the entry within 90 days, under the 6.0% floor a call has to clear to be worth making. No alerts are sent. The buy and target below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy at or below
US$27.67
level as at 17 Sept 2026
Our target
US$29.88
by 16 Dec 2026
Projected move
8.0%
gross, before costs
Price is at or through our target.
- Upper line touches
- 2
- Lower line touches
- 2
- Fit confidence
- 49%
- Fitted
- 15 Sept 2026
About Tractor Supply Company
Tractor Supply Company functions as a prominent retailer, catering to the rural lifestyle demographic throughout the United States. Its extensive product catalog encompasses items crucial for the health, well-being, development, and enclosure of equine, livestock, pets, and small animals. Additionally, it stocks a variety of hardware, truck, towing, and tool supplies. Shoppers can also find seasonal goods like heating solutions, gardening equipment, power tools, novelty gifts, and children's toys, alongside workwear, casual apparel, footwear, and essential maintenance products designed for agricultural and general rural applications. These offerings are made available under a diverse portfolio of private label and proprietary brands, including 4health, Producer's Pride, American Farmworks, Red Shed, Bit & Bridle, Redstone, Blue Mountain, Retriever, C.E. Schmidt, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Dumor, Strive, Groundwork, Traveller, Huskee, Treeline, JobSmart, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Paws & Claws, and Untamed. Data from June 25, 2022, indicates the company's retail footprint included 2,016 Tractor Supply outlets spanning 49 states, complemented by 178 Petsense locations across 23 states. Its physical retail presence includes stores operating under the banners of Tractor Supply Company, Del's Feed & Farm Supply, and Petsense, while its digital storefronts are accessible via TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com. The primary customer base comprises recreational farmers, ranchers, and other individuals with similar needs. Established in 1938, the corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Brentwood, Tennessee.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- CEO
- Harry A. Lawton
- Employees
- 52,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$17.31B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 0.47
- Avg volume
- 11.90M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 28.36-60.86
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.