TPR Tapestry, Inc. Common Stock
Tapestry, Inc. Common Stock (TPR) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Consumer Cyclical. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below, rising on both timeframes
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
Read from the last 12 months of history we hold: rising, drifting +40% a year. The target of US$166.57 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$153.88), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$139.60 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 12 months read from
- US$139.64 – US$153.88 Rising channel, +40% a year
- Position in that channel
- -151% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -29% from US$164.7010 Aug 2026 → 8 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This companyno peer group to compare against
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 0%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 86% of 1139 comparable falls came back, typically in 69 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in August 2026: price fell 29% from 164.70 to 117.55 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Telsey Advisory Group Maintains Outperform on Tapestry, Raises Price Target to $175”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 29% here have come back to the old high 86% of the time (1139 comparable falls), typically in 69 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 166.57 within 68 days, reached 86% of the time in 1139 comparable falls — about 0.61% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Telsey Advisory Group Maintains Outperform on Tapestry, Raises Price Target to $175 — 6 Aug 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (12 months)
- Lower trend line (12 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$117.55
level as at 8 Sept 2026
Our target
US$166.57
by 15 Nov 2026
Projected move
41.7%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The trend broke in August 2026: price fell 29% from 164.70 to 117.55 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Telsey Advisory Group Maintains Outperform on Tapestry, Raises Price Target to $175”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 29% here have come back to the old high 86% of the time (1139 comparable falls), typically in 69 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 166.57 within 68 days, reached 86% of the time in 1139 comparable falls — about 0.61% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 1139 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 86% were back at the old high within 69 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 10% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 164.70 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 76%
- Fitted
- 8 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.