SMTC Semtech Corporation Common Stock
Semtech Corporation Common Stock (SMTC) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
Read from the last 2 years of history we hold: rising, drifting more than +100% a year. The target of US$180.17 is below the nearest ceiling (US$205.50), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$120.72 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 2 years read from
- US$120.72 – US$205.50 Rising channel, more than +100% a year
- Position in that channel
- 55% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -41% from US$174.8222 June 2026 → 29 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- Its sector3 of 6 Semiconductors & Related Devices peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 66%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 86% of 20 comparable falls came back, typically in 70 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 41% from 174.82 to 103.55 by July 2026, and has regained 66% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 3 of 6 Semiconductors & Related Devices peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. The wire that week: “TD Cowen Maintains Buy on Semtech, Raises Price Target to $215”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 41% here have come back to the old high 86% of the time (20 comparable falls), typically in 70 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 180.17 within 31 days, reached 86% of the time in 20 comparable falls — about 0.63% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: TD Cowen Maintains Buy on Semtech, Raises Price Target to $215 — 22 June 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (2 years)
- Lower trend line (2 years)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$150.79
level as at 16 Sept 2026
Our target
US$180.17
by 17 Oct 2026
Projected move
19.5%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 41% from 174.82 to 103.55 by July 2026, and has regained 66% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 3 of 6 Semiconductors & Related Devices peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. The wire that week: “TD Cowen Maintains Buy on Semtech, Raises Price Target to $215”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 41% here have come back to the old high 86% of the time (20 comparable falls), typically in 70 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 180.17 within 31 days, reached 86% of the time in 20 comparable falls — about 0.63% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 20 comparable falls in Semiconductors & Related Devices, 86% were back at the old high within 70 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 11% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 174.82 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 27%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.