SHOP Shopify Inc.
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 5 comparable calls have settled; 20% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
Read from the last 11 months of history we hold: falling, drifting −25% a year. The target of US$148.58 is below the nearest ceiling (US$164.08), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$120.89 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 11 months read from
- US$120.89 – US$164.08 Falling channel, −25% a year
- Position in that channel
- 21% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -47% from US$178.9829 Oct 2025 → 13 May 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company6 of 19 Software - Application peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Unsettled too close to a coin toss on the record to call
- Regained so far
- 41%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 50% of 16 comparable falls came back, typically in 155 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in October 2025: price fell 47% from 178.98 to 95.44 by May 2026, and has regained 41% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Shopify Stock In The Last 15 Years”. What happens next is not settled: falls of about 47% here have come back to the old high 50% of the time (16 comparable falls), typically in 155 days, which is too close to a coin toss to price a recovery from.
Reported at the time: Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Shopify Stock In The Last 15 Years — 24 Oct 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (11 months)
- Lower trend line (11 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
We replayed these rules over this stock's own history and the target was reached on only 1 of 5 calls. Its swings do not respect the channel reliably enough for a published call, and no alerts are sent. The numbers below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy at or below
US$129.20
level as at 15 Oct 2026
Our target
US$148.58
by 23 Nov 2026
Projected move
15.0%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 5 settled calls, of which 1 reached target (20%), with an average best move of 10.1%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 2
- Lower line touches
- 2
- Fit confidence
- 39%
- Fitted
- 15 Sept 2026
About Shopify Inc.
Shopify Inc. functions as a premier commerce technology company, providing an extensive platform and associated services to empower businesses worldwide. Its reach extends across Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific region, and Latin America. The company's robust platform equips merchants to effectively display, organize, market, and sell their merchandise through a multitude of sales avenues. These include digital storefronts accessible via web and mobile, traditional brick-and-mortar stores, temporary pop-up locations, integrated social media channels, proprietary mobile applications, embeddable "buy buttons," and established online marketplaces. Beyond sales, the platform streamlines crucial business operations such as product and inventory management, order and payment processing, fulfillment and shipping logistics, attracting new customers and fostering client relationships, product sourcing, analytical reporting, financial administration encompassing cash, payments, and transactions, and facilitating access to working capital. Additionally, Shopify offers supplementary services like the sale of custom website themes and applications, alongside domain name registration. Its merchant-focused solutions also cover payment acceptance, efficient shipping and order fulfillment, and aid in securing necessary operating funds. Founded in 2004 under the initial name Jaded Pixel Technologies Inc., the company officially rebranded to Shopify Inc. in November 2011. Its global headquarters are located in Ottawa, Canada.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- CEO
- Tobias Lutke
- Employees
- 7,600
- Country
- CA
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- 33/100
- Profitability
- 48/100
- Financial health
- 66/100
- Cash generation
- 32/100
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$198.04B
- Enterprise value
- US$196.56B
- Beta
- 2.58
- Avg volume
- 10.30M
- Revenue per share
- 10.24
- Dividend yield
- 0.00%
- 52-week range
- 94-182.19
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- 102.42
- PEG
- -5.79
- Price / sales
- 14.92
- Price / book
- 15.58
- EV / EBITDA
- -378.72
- Gross margin
- 47.77%
- Operating margin
- 13.90%
- Net margin
- 14.53%
- Current ratio
- 5.35
- Quick ratio
- 5.35
- Debt / equity
- 0.01
- Interest cover
- 0.00
Income statement
| Year | Revenue | Gross profit | Operating income | Net income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$11.56B | US$5.55B | US$1.47B | US$1.23B | US$0.94 |
| 2024 | US$8.88B | US$4.47B | US$1.07B | US$2.02B | US$1.55 |
| 2023 | US$7.06B | US$3.52B | -US$1.42B | US$132.00M | US$0.10 |
| 2022 | US$5.60B | US$2.75B | -US$822.00M | -US$3.46B | -US$2.73 |
| 2021 | US$4.61B | US$2.48B | US$268.64M | US$2.91B | US$2.27 |
Balance sheet
| Year | Total assets | Total liabilities | Total equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$15.19B | US$1.72B | US$13.47B |
| 2024 | US$13.92B | US$2.37B | US$11.56B |
| 2023 | US$11.30B | US$2.23B | US$9.07B |
| 2022 | US$10.76B | US$2.52B | US$8.24B |
| 2021 | US$13.34B | US$2.21B | US$11.13B |
Cash flow
| Year | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$2.03B | US$2.01B | US$1.23B |
| 2024 | US$1.62B | US$1.60B | US$2.02B |
| 2023 | US$944.00M | US$905.00M | US$132.00M |
| 2022 | -US$136.00M | -US$186.00M | -US$3.46B |
| 2021 | US$535.71M | US$484.92M | US$2.91B |
EPS forecasts
| Period | Est. EPS | Est. revenue | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$1.46 | US$11.55B | 26 |
| 2026 | US$1.87 | US$15.13B | 20 |
| 2027 | US$2.42 | US$18.96B | 28 |
| 2028 | US$3.24 | US$23.57B | 12 |
| 2029 | US$3.78 | US$28.06B | 9 |
| 2030 | US$4.49 | US$33.17B | 5 |
Analyst view
- Target (mean)
- US$165.90
- Target (high)
- US$200.00
- Target (low)
- US$130.00
- Strong buy
- 0
- Buy
- 42
- Hold
- 19
- Sell
- 3
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.