SAP SAP SE
SAP SE (SAP) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
Read from the last 9 months of history we hold: falling, drifting −27% a year. The target of US$312.22 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$228.22), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$135.10 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- US$135.10 – US$228.22 Falling channel, −27% a year
- Position in that channel
- 84% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -53% from US$308.379 July 2025 → 23 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company3 of 9 Services-Prepackaged Software peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 44%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 60% of 13 comparable falls came back, typically in 104 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in July 2025: price fell 53% from 308.37 to 146.28 by July 2026, and has regained 44% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “What's Driving the Market Sentiment Around SAP?”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 53% here have come back to the old high 60% of the time (13 comparable falls), typically in 104 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 312.22 within 73 days, reached 60% of the time in 13 comparable falls — about 0.60% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: What's Driving the Market Sentiment Around SAP? — 7 July 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$213.26
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$217.38; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$312.22
by 27 Nov 2026
Projected move
46.4%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in July 2025: price fell 53% from 308.37 to 146.28 by July 2026, and has regained 44% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “What's Driving the Market Sentiment Around SAP?”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 53% here have come back to the old high 60% of the time (13 comparable falls), typically in 104 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 312.22 within 73 days, reached 60% of the time in 13 comparable falls — about 0.60% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 13 comparable falls in Services-Prepackaged Software, 60% were back at the old high within 104 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 17% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 308.37 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 83%
- Fitted
- 15 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.