QGEN QIAGEN N.V.
QIAGEN N.V. (QGEN) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Healthcare. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
Read from the last 3 years of history we hold: rising, drifting +5% a year. The target of US$55.92 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$49.83), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$36.11 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 3 years read from
- US$36.11 – US$49.83 Rising channel, +5% a year
- Position in that channel
- 49% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -41% from US$55.1821 Jan 2026 → 11 May 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 4 Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 43%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 91% of 9 comparable falls came back, typically in 95 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in January 2026: price fell 41% from 55.18 to 32.34 by May 2026, and has regained 43% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Qiagen Explores Possible Sale After New Buyer Talks: Report”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 41% here have come back to the old high 91% of the time (9 comparable falls), typically in 95 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 55.92 within 174 days, reached 91% of the time in 9 comparable falls — about 0.19% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Qiagen Explores Possible Sale After New Buyer Talks: Report — 21 Jan 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (3 years)
- Lower trend line (3 years)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$42.12
level as at 11 Sept 2026
Our target
US$55.92
by 4 Mar 2027
Projected move
32.8%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The trend broke in January 2026: price fell 41% from 55.18 to 32.34 by May 2026, and has regained 43% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Qiagen Explores Possible Sale After New Buyer Talks: Report”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 41% here have come back to the old high 91% of the time (9 comparable falls), typically in 95 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 55.92 within 174 days, reached 91% of the time in 9 comparable falls — about 0.19% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 9 comparable falls in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances), 91% were back at the old high within 95 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 14% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 55.18 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 9
- Lower line touches
- 6
- Fit confidence
- 34%
- Fitted
- 11 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.