QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 5 comparable calls have settled; 40% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, rising on both timeframes
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
The next few months are read from the last 18 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (41% against 59%). The last 12 months stay as context: rising, +5% a year. The target of US$255.27 is below the nearest ceiling (US$303.78), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$145.55 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 18 months read from
- US$145.55 – US$303.78 Rising channel, +15% a year
- 12 months
- US$173.37 – US$326.70 Rising channel, +5% a year
- Position in that channel
- 27% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -41% from US$250.2529 May 2026 → 31 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- Its sector16 of 24 Semiconductors peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 40%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 84% of 62 comparable falls came back, typically in 80 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in May 2026: price fell 41% from 250.25 to 147.70 by July 2026, and has regained 40% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 16 of 24 Semiconductors peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. The wire that week: “UPDATED: 'Qualcomm Strikes AI Chip Deal With TikTok Owner ByteDance' - Bloomberg News”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 41% here have come back to the old high 84% of the time (62 comparable falls), typically in 80 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 255.27 within 80 days, reached 84% of the time in 62 comparable falls — about 0.44% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: UPDATED: 'Qualcomm Strikes AI Chip Deal With TikTok Owner ByteDance' - Bloomberg News — 26 May 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (18 months)
- Lower trend line (18 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$188.64
level as at 17 Sept 2026
Our target
US$255.27
by 6 Dec 2026
Projected move
35.3%
gross, before costs
Price is at or below our buy level.
The trend broke in May 2026: price fell 41% from 250.25 to 147.70 by July 2026, and has regained 40% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 16 of 24 Semiconductors peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. The wire that week: “UPDATED: 'Qualcomm Strikes AI Chip Deal With TikTok Owner ByteDance' - Bloomberg News”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 41% here have come back to the old high 84% of the time (62 comparable falls), typically in 80 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 255.27 within 80 days, reached 84% of the time in 62 comparable falls — about 0.44% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 62 comparable falls in Semiconductors, 84% were back at the old high within 80 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 16% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 250.25 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 5 settled calls, of which 2 reached target (40%), with an average best move of 7.4%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 4
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 59%
- Fitted
- 17 Sept 2026
About QUALCOMM Incorporated
QUALCOMM Incorporated is a company dedicated to developing and bringing to market fundamental technologies crucial for the global wireless communication industry. Its operations are structured into three primary segments: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT), Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL), and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives (QSI). The QCT division specializes in creating and supplying integrated circuits and system software, leveraging 3G, 4G, 5G, and other advanced wireless technologies. These components are essential for a range of products, including those used for wireless voice and data communication, networking, application processing, multimedia, and global positioning. The QTL segment generates revenue by licensing its extensive intellectual property portfolio, which encompasses various patent rights vital for the manufacture and sale of wireless devices, particularly those adhering to standards like CDMA2000, WCDMA, LTE, and OFDMA-based 5G. Through its QSI segment, Qualcomm invests in early-stage companies across diverse sectors such as 5G, artificial intelligence, automotive, consumer electronics, enterprise solutions, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things, aiming to support the introduction of new products and services for both existing and emerging communication applications. Furthermore, the company provides development services and related products to United States government agencies and their contractors. Founded in 1985, QUALCOMM Incorporated maintains its headquarters in San Diego, California.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- CEO
- Cristiano Renno Amon
- Employees
- 52,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$169.91B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.65
- Avg volume
- 19.60M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 121.99-259.92
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.