PBR Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Energy. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
Read from the last 3 years of history we hold: rising, drifting +11% a year. The nearest ceiling overhead is US$23.92. What would overturn this: a close below US$11.36 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 3 years read from
- US$11.36 – US$23.92 Rising channel, +11% a year
- Position in that channel
- 76% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -27% from US$21.7830 Apr 2026 → 1 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company1 of 3 Oil & Gas Integrated peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 90%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 87% of 1081 comparable falls came back, typically in 66 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in April 2026: price fell 27% from 21.78 to 16.00 by July 2026, and has regained 90% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Petrobras Brasileiro Stock In The Last 5 Years”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 27% here have come back to the old high 87% of the time (1081 comparable falls), typically in 66 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it.
Reported at the time: Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Petrobras Brasileiro Stock In The Last 5 Years — 30 Apr 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (3 years)
- Lower trend line (3 years)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
No published call today because price has already run past what this setup aims at, so there is nothing left of the move to buy. No alerts are sent. The buy and target below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy at or below
US$11.36
level as at 17 Sept 2026
Our target
US$25.36
by 16 Dec 2026
Projected move
123.2%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
- Upper line touches
- 5
- Lower line touches
- 10
- Fit confidence
- 32%
- Fitted
- 13 Sept 2026
About Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras
Brazilian energy giant Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) is deeply involved in the global oil and gas industry, conducting exploration, production, and sales activities both within Brazil and internationally. The company's diverse operations are organized into four primary business segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation, and Marketing; Gas and Power; and Corporate and Other Businesses. Overall, Petrobras’s activities span the entire hydrocarbon value chain. This includes the search for and extraction of crude oil from various sources—onshore, offshore, and unconventional formations like shale—along with its subsequent refining, processing, trading, and distribution. The company also manages natural gas, other liquid hydrocarbons, and refined petroleum products. Specifically, the Exploration and Production division focuses on discovering, developing, and extracting crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas, primarily to supply the company's domestic refineries. The Refining, Transportation, and Marketing segment handles the refining, logistics, transport, commercialization, and trading of crude oil and various refined petroleum products. This unit is also responsible for ethanol exports, the extraction and processing of shale, and holds equity interests in petrochemical companies. The Gas and Power segment manages the logistics and trading of natural gas and electricity, including the transportation and commercialization of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). It generates electricity via thermoelectric power plants, holds stakes in natural gas transmission and distribution networks, and is engaged in both fertilizer manufacturing and natural gas processing. Finally, the Corporate and Other Businesses segment is dedicated to the production of biodiesel and its associated co-products, as well as ethanol, in addition to the distribution of various petroleum products. Petrobras was established in 1953 and its corporate headquarters are located in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Integrated
- CEO
- Magda Maria de Regina Chambriard
- Employees
- 50,687
- Country
- BR
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$119.41B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- -0.22
- Avg volume
- 16.38M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 11.43-22.24
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.