ORCL Oracle Corporation
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 10 comparable calls have settled; 80% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
In the buy zone
Price is sitting on the lower trend line — the level that has repeatedly held.
Read from the last 3 years of history we hold: rising, drifting +25% a year. The target of US$148.85 is below the nearest ceiling (US$526.27), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$147.04 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 3 years read from
- US$147.04 – US$526.27 Rising channel, +25% a year
- Position in that channel
- -1% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -65% from US$324.6110 Sept 2025 → 24 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company5 of 12 Software - Infrastructure peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Unsettled too close to a coin toss on the record to call
- Regained so far
- 12%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 54% of 11 comparable falls came back, typically in 102 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in September 2025: price fell 65% from 324.61 to 115.00 by July 2026, and has regained 12% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Oracle Options Trading: A Deep Dive into Market Sentiment”. What happens next is not settled: falls of about 65% here have come back to the old high 54% of the time (11 comparable falls), typically in 102 days, which is too close to a coin toss to price a recovery from.
Reported at the time: Oracle Options Trading: A Deep Dive into Market Sentiment — 5 Sept 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (3 years)
- Lower trend line (3 years)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$132.90
level as at 6 Oct 2026
Our target
US$148.85
by 18 Oct 2026
Projected move
12.0%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 6 touches on the ceiling, 6 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor — the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at — 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 13 times so far, reaching target 92% of the time. The sell price comes from where this stock is projected to be, not from a minimum worth taking: the fitted path reaches more than 30% above the entry within 90 days, and of the sizes that path supports, 12% is the one that has returned the most per day of money tied up here — measured over the 13 times this entry has come up on this chart, reached 85% of the time, typically in 12 days. Smaller sizes got there sooner but paid less for the weeks they used; larger ones need a break above the projected ceiling, which is not the base case. The date published is whichever is later: that typical time, or the day the projected path itself reaches the price. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 10 settled calls, of which 8 reached target (80%), with an average best move of 8%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 6
- Lower line touches
- 6
- Fit confidence
- 49%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Oracle Corporation
Oracle Corporation, a global technology giant, provides a comprehensive suite of enterprise information technology solutions worldwide. A core part of its portfolio comprises cloud-based software-as-a-service (SaaS) applications, including the Oracle Fusion Cloud suite covering enterprise resource planning (ERP), enterprise performance management (EPM), supply chain and manufacturing management (SCM), and human capital management (HCM). This also extends to specialized offerings like Oracle Advertising, the NetSuite application suite, and Oracle Fusion solutions for Sales, Service, and Marketing. Beyond these, Oracle develops cloud solutions tailored for various specific industries, alongside traditional application licenses and comprehensive license support services. Furthermore, the company's robust cloud and licensing business is underpinned by its infrastructure technologies. These include the flagship Oracle Database, the widely adopted Java programming language, and various middleware components such as development tools. Its advanced cloud infrastructure provides compute, storage, and networking capabilities, complemented by innovative services like the Oracle Autonomous Database, MySQL HeatWave, Internet-of-Things (IoT) platforms, digital assistants, and blockchain technology. Oracle also offers a range of hardware products and associated software. This encompasses Oracle engineered systems, enterprise servers, storage solutions, and specialized hardware for particular industries. Additionally, it provides virtualization software, operating systems, management software, and related hardware support. Complementing its product lines, Oracle delivers expert consulting and dedicated customer services. The company employs a direct sales model, reaching businesses across diverse sectors, government bodies, and educational institutions globally, while also leveraging an extensive network of indirect channels. Established in 1977, Oracle Corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Austin, Texas.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Infrastructure
- CEO
- Michael D. Sicilia
- Employees
- 141,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$421.90B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.72
- Avg volume
- 30.99M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 114.5-345.72
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.