NVDA NVIDIA Corporation
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 5 comparable calls have settled; 100% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
In the sell zone, rising on both timeframes
Price has run up to the upper trend line — the level it has repeatedly stalled at.
The next few months are read from the last 12 months, not the last 3 years: that channel fits this stock's recent turns at least as well (34% against 34%) and it is the one price is respecting now. The last 3 years stay as context: rising, +53% a year. The target of US$226.31 is below the nearest ceiling (US$248.80), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$195.43 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 3 years
- US$215.08 – US$248.80 Rising channel, +53% a year
- 12 months read from
- US$195.43 – US$209.65 Rising channel, +23% a year
- Position in that channel
- 130% above the ceiling of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (3 years)
- Lower trend line (3 years)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$205.73
level as at 27 Sept 2026
Our target
US$226.31
by 4 Oct 2026
Projected move
10.0%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 8 touches on the ceiling, 5 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor — the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at — 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 16 times so far, reaching target 94% of the time. The sell price comes from where this stock is projected to be, not from a minimum worth taking: the fitted path reaches 26% above the entry within 90 days, and of the sizes that path supports, 10% is the one that has returned the most per day of money tied up here — measured over the 14 times this entry has come up on this chart, reached 93% of the time, typically in 7 days. Smaller sizes got there sooner but paid less for the weeks they used; larger ones need a break above the projected ceiling, which is not the base case. The date published is whichever is later: that typical time, or the day the projected path itself reaches the price. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 5 settled calls, of which 5 reached target (100%), with an average best move of 19.9%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 8
- Lower line touches
- 5
- Fit confidence
- 34%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About NVIDIA Corporation
NVIDIA Corporation stands as a prominent provider of advanced graphics, computational, and networking solutions, operating across the United States, Taiwan, China, and numerous international markets. Its Graphics division encompasses GeForce GPUs, central to PC gaming and personal computing experiences, along with the GeForce NOW cloud gaming service and its supporting infrastructure, as well as dedicated solutions for various gaming platforms. For professional visualization, it provides Quadro and NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstations, further offering vGPU software designed for cloud-centric visual and virtual computing, automotive platforms for in-vehicle infotainment, and the Omniverse software suite, facilitating 3D design and virtual world creation. The Compute & Networking segment is a cornerstone for AI, high-performance computing (HPC), and accelerated data center platforms. It integrates Mellanox networking and interconnect solutions, delivers automotive AI Cockpit technologies, fosters autonomous driving development through strategic agreements, and offers comprehensive autonomous vehicle solutions. This segment also manufactures cryptocurrency mining processors, supplies Jetson platforms for robotics and other embedded applications, and offers enterprise AI software, including NVIDIA AI Enterprise. These diverse offerings find widespread application across the gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive sectors. NVIDIA distributes its portfolio through a broad ecosystem, engaging original equipment and device manufacturers, system integrators, add-in board makers, retail channels, software vendors, internet and cloud service providers, automotive companies (both manufacturers and tier-1 suppliers), mapping firms, nascent technology ventures, and other industry stakeholders. A notable strategic partnership exists with Kroger Co. Founded in 1993, NVIDIA Corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Santa Clara, California.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- CEO
- Jensen Huang
- Employees
- 42,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- 26/100
- Profitability
- 100/100
- Financial health
- 98/100
- Cash generation
- 62/100
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$5.29T
- Enterprise value
- US$5.30T
- Beta
- 2.22
- Avg volume
- 144.10M
- Revenue per share
- 12.52
- Dividend yield
- 0.24%
- 52-week range
- 164.27-236.54
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- 27.46
- PEG
- 0.22
- Price / sales
- 17.45
- Price / book
- 23.06
- EV / EBITDA
- 22.70
- Gross margin
- 74.67%
- Operating margin
- 65.21%
- Net margin
- 63.66%
- Current ratio
- 4.59
- Quick ratio
- 3.85
- Debt / equity
- 0.17
- Interest cover
- 426.74
Income statement
| Year | Revenue | Gross profit | Operating income | Net income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | US$215.94B | US$153.46B | US$130.39B | US$120.07B | US$4.90 |
| 2025 | US$130.50B | US$97.86B | US$81.45B | US$72.88B | US$2.94 |
| 2024 | US$60.92B | US$44.30B | US$32.97B | US$29.76B | US$1.19 |
| 2023 | US$26.97B | US$15.36B | US$4.22B | US$4.37B | US$0.17 |
| 2022 | US$26.91B | US$17.48B | US$10.04B | US$9.75B | US$0.38 |
Balance sheet
| Year | Total assets | Total liabilities | Total equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | US$206.80B | US$49.51B | US$157.29B |
| 2025 | US$111.60B | US$32.27B | US$79.33B |
| 2024 | US$65.73B | US$22.75B | US$42.98B |
| 2023 | US$41.18B | US$19.08B | US$22.10B |
| 2022 | US$44.19B | US$17.57B | US$26.61B |
Cash flow
| Year | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | US$102.72B | US$96.68B | US$120.07B |
| 2025 | US$64.09B | US$60.85B | US$72.88B |
| 2024 | US$28.09B | US$27.02B | US$29.76B |
| 2023 | US$5.64B | US$3.81B | US$4.37B |
| 2022 | US$9.11B | US$8.13B | US$9.75B |
EPS forecasts
| Period | Est. EPS | Est. revenue | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | US$4.69 | US$213.66B | 30 |
| 2027 | US$9.26 | US$408.56B | 32 |
| 2028 | US$15.70 | US$687.09B | 33 |
| 2029 | US$21.26 | US$911.96B | 19 |
| 2030 | US$23.00 | US$1.11T | 10 |
| 2031 | US$20.00 | US$1.12T | 17 |
Analyst view
- Target (mean)
- US$345.21
- Target (high)
- US$515.00
- Target (low)
- US$270.00
- Strong buy
- 2
- Buy
- 58
- Hold
- 16
- Sell
- 3
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.