NOK Nokia Oyj
Nokia Oyj (NOK) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
Read from the last 18 months of history we hold: rising, drifting more than +100% a year. The target of US$17.93 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$11.50), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$9.17 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 18 months read from
- US$9.17 – US$11.50 Rising channel, more than +100% a year
- Position in that channel
- 42% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -50% from US$16.792 June 2026 → 29 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- Its sector2 of 4 Communication Equipment peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 17%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 67% of 7 comparable falls came back, typically in 153 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 50% from 16.79 to 8.40 by July 2026, and has regained 17% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 2 of 4 Communication Equipment peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. The wire that week: “Nokia Stock Pauses As Investors Digest Massive Multi-Month Rally”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 50% here have come back to the old high 67% of the time (7 comparable falls), typically in 153 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 17.93 within 281 days, reached 67% of the time in 7 comparable falls — about 0.29% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Nokia Stock Pauses As Investors Digest Massive Multi-Month Rally — 28 May 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (18 months)
- Lower trend line (18 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$9.82
level as at 16 Sept 2026
Our target
US$17.93
by 24 June 2027
Projected move
82.5%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 50% from 16.79 to 8.40 by July 2026, and has regained 17% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 2 of 4 Communication Equipment peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. The wire that week: “Nokia Stock Pauses As Investors Digest Massive Multi-Month Rally”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 50% here have come back to the old high 67% of the time (7 comparable falls), typically in 153 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 17.93 within 281 days, reached 67% of the time in 7 comparable falls — about 0.29% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 7 comparable falls in Communication Equipment, 67% were back at the old high within 153 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 18% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 16.79 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 2
- Lower line touches
- 2
- Fit confidence
- 34%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Nokia Oyj
Nokia Oyj stands as a global technology leader, delivering comprehensive network infrastructure and solutions across mobile, fixed, and cloud domains. Its operations are structured into four primary divisions: Mobile Networks, Network Infrastructure, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies. The Mobile Networks segment furnishes radio access network technologies, spanning from 2G to 5G, alongside crucial microwave radio links for transport. Within Network Infrastructure, Nokia provides fixed access solutions such as fiber and copper, coupled with cloud and virtualization services. This segment also encompasses a robust Wi-Fi portfolio, featuring mesh solutions and cloud-based controllers, as well as sophisticated IP routing solutions for aggregation, edge, and core applications tailored for residential, business, mobile, and industrial sectors. Its extensive optical network offerings include coherent optical transponders, optical transport network switchers, wavelength-division multiplexers, reconfigurable optical add-drop multiplexer solutions, and optical line systems designed for metro access, data center interconnect, regional, and long/ultra-long-haul applications. Additionally, Nokia provides capabilities for submarine networks. The Cloud and Network Services division delivers business application software, advanced cloud and cognitive services, core network software, and specialized enterprise solutions. Through Nokia Technologies, the company engages in licensing its valuable intellectual property, encompassing patents, various technologies, and the iconic Nokia brand, in addition to offering hardware, software, and related services. Serving a diverse clientele, Nokia's customers include communications service providers, major internet companies (webscales and hyperscalers), digital industries, and governmental entities. Nokia Oyj was founded in 1865 and maintains its headquarters in Espoo, Finland.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Communication Equipment
- CEO
- Justin Hotard
- Employees
- 78,434
- Country
- FI
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- 45/100
- Profitability
- 20/100
- Financial health
- 76/100
- Cash generation
- 14/100
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$54.77B
- Enterprise value
- US$48.34B
- Beta
- 0.79
- Avg volume
- 97.13M
- Revenue per share
- 3.62
- Dividend yield
- 1.58%
- 52-week range
- 4.62-17.45
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- 69.68
- PEG
- -2.51
- Price / sales
- 2.43
- Price / book
- 2.33
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.17
- Gross margin
- 44.62%
- Operating margin
- 8.27%
- Net margin
- 4.65%
- Current ratio
- 1.51
- Quick ratio
- 1.23
- Debt / equity
- 0.16
- Interest cover
- 239.57
Income statement
| Year | Revenue | Gross profit | Operating income | Net income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$19.89B | US$8.66B | US$782.00M | US$651.00M | US$0.11 |
| 2024 | US$19.22B | US$8.86B | US$1.59B | US$1.28B | US$0.23 |
| 2023 | US$21.14B | US$8.55B | US$1.47B | US$665.00M | US$0.12 |
| 2022 | US$23.76B | US$10.10B | US$2.44B | US$4.25B | US$0.75 |
| 2021 | US$22.20B | US$8.83B | US$2.16B | US$1.62B | US$0.29 |
Balance sheet
| Year | Total assets | Total liabilities | Total equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$37.58B | US$16.53B | US$20.96B |
| 2024 | US$39.15B | US$18.40B | US$20.66B |
| 2023 | US$39.86B | US$19.23B | US$20.54B |
| 2022 | US$42.94B | US$21.52B | US$21.33B |
| 2021 | US$40.05B | US$22.59B | US$17.36B |
Cash flow
| Year | Operating cash flow | Free cash flow | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$2.07B | US$1.47B | US$660.00M |
| 2024 | US$2.49B | US$2.02B | US$1.28B |
| 2023 | US$1.32B | US$665.00M | US$679.00M |
| 2022 | US$1.47B | US$873.00M | US$4.26B |
| 2021 | US$2.63B | US$2.06B | US$1.65B |
EPS forecasts
| Period | Est. EPS | Est. revenue | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$0.2566 | US$19.72B | 6 |
| 2026 | US$0.3417 | US$20.74B | 7 |
| 2027 | US$0.4086 | US$22.25B | 7 |
| 2028 | US$0.4772 | US$23.73B | 4 |
| 2029 | US$0.4991 | US$24.42B | 2 |
| 2030 | US$0.6263 | US$24.83B | 4 |
Analyst view
- Target (mean)
- US$17.50
- Target (high)
- US$20.00
- Target (low)
- US$15.00
- Strong buy
- 0
- Buy
- 31
- Hold
- 16
- Sell
- 5
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.