NOC Northrop Grumman Corporation
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Industrials. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 8 comparable calls have settled; 62.5% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, falling on both timeframes
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
The next few months are read from the last 12 months, not the last 9 months: that channel fits this stock's recent turns at least as well (81% against 79%) and it is the one price is respecting now. The last 9 months stay as context: falling, −31% a year. The target of US$595.50 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$566.13, from the last 12 months), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$434.24 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months
- US$427.94 – US$607.97 Falling channel, −31% a year
- 12 months read from
- US$434.24 – US$566.13 Falling channel, −10% a year
- Position in that channel
- 71% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -35% from US$763.962 Mar 2026 → 29 June 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company3 of 13 Aerospace & Defense peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 12%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 88% of 22 comparable falls came back, typically in 106 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in March 2026: price fell 35% from 763.96 to 495.97 by June 2026, and has regained 12% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Cuban Border Guard Kills Four On US Boat: What Do Prediction Markets Say Could Happen Next?”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 35% here have come back to the old high 88% of the time (22 comparable falls), typically in 106 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 778.04 within 659 days, reached 88% of the time in 22 comparable falls — about 0.07% a day held.
Reported at the time: Cuban Border Guard Kills Four On US Boat: What Do Prediction Markets Say Could Happen Next? — 25 Feb 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$527.29
last close · 18 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$531.70; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$595.50
by 6 Nov 2026
Projected move
12.9%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 2 touches on the ceiling, 4 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor — the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at — 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 9 times so far, reaching target 56% of the time — too few to mean much on its own. The sell price comes from where this stock is projected to be, not from a minimum worth taking: the fitted path reaches 18% above the entry within 90 days, and of the sizes that path supports, 12% is the one that has returned the most per day of money tied up here — measured over the 11 times this entry has come up on this chart, reached 55% of the time, typically in 48 days. Smaller sizes got there sooner but paid less for the weeks they used; larger ones need a break above the projected ceiling, which is not the base case. The date published is whichever is later: that typical time, or the day the projected path itself reaches the price. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 8 settled calls, of which 5 reached target (62.5%), with an average best move of 8.8%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 2
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 79%
- Fitted
- 19 Sept 2026
About Northrop Grumman Corporation
Northrop Grumman Corporation is a leading global player in the aerospace and defense sectors. Its Aeronautics Systems division is responsible for the full lifecycle of aircraft, from design and development to production, integration, and ongoing maintenance. This includes a diverse portfolio of crewed and uncrewed aerial platforms: advanced strategic long-range strike aircraft, tactical fighter and air superiority jets, and sophisticated airborne systems for battle management and command and control. Additionally, it specializes in autonomous uncrewed aircraft systems, such as high-altitude, long-endurance strategic intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms, alongside vertical take-off and landing tactical ISR systems. The Defense Systems segment focuses on creating and delivering a wide array of weapons and mission technologies. Its offerings encompass integrated battle management solutions, various weapons platforms, and specialized aircraft. Key products include command and control systems, munitions, and missiles, alongside precision strike capabilities. The segment is also at the forefront of propulsion technologies, offering both air-breathing and advanced hypersonic systems, as well as sophisticated gun systems and precision munitions. Beyond products, it provides comprehensive life-cycle support, including software services, ongoing maintenance, logistics, operational assistance, and modernization efforts for air, sea, and ground-based defense systems. Within its Mission Systems division, Northrop Grumman delivers critical capabilities spanning cybersecurity, C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance). This includes developing advanced sensing technologies such as radar, electro-optical/infrared, and acoustic sensors, alongside electronic warfare systems. The division also provides cutting-edge communications and networking solutions, intelligence processing, navigation systems, and maritime power, propulsion, and payload launch systems. Furthermore, it supplies airborne multifunction sensors, integrated maritime and land-based systems, targeting and survivability solutions, and robust networked information platforms. The Space Systems segment is a key provider of space-based solutions, delivering satellites and their associated payloads, along with essential ground control systems. It specializes in missile defense systems, including interceptors, and offers a range of launch vehicles with their propulsion components, as well as strategic missile technologies. Established in 1939, the corporation maintains its headquarters in Falls Church, Virginia.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- CEO
- Kathy J. Warden
- Employees
- 95,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$73.16B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- -0.11
- Avg volume
- 879.32K
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 479.02-774
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.