MU Micron Technology, Inc.
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on ARCA. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 7 comparable calls have settled; 71.4% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
Read from the last 18 months of history we hold: rising, drifting more than +100% a year. The target of US$1,236 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$1,176), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$971.86 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 18 months read from
- US$971.86 – US$1,176 Rising channel, more than +100% a year
- Position in that channel
- -21% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -39% from US$1,21525 June 2026 → 29 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- Its sector15 of 24 Semiconductors peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 40%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 85% of 65 comparable falls came back, typically in 80 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 39% from 1215.27 to 738.76 by July 2026, and has regained 40% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 15 of 24 Semiconductors peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. The wire that week: “Micron Is Up 285% So Far This Year. Will It Surge or Crash After Earnings?”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 39% here have come back to the old high 85% of the time (65 comparable falls), typically in 80 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 1236.37 within 80 days, reached 85% of the time in 65 comparable falls — about 0.42% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Micron Is Up 285% So Far This Year. Will It Surge or Crash After Earnings? — 20 June 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (18 months)
- Lower trend line (18 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$927.30
level as at 16 Sept 2026
Our target
US$1,236
by 5 Dec 2026
Projected move
33.3%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 39% from 1215.27 to 738.76 by July 2026, and has regained 40% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 15 of 24 Semiconductors peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. The wire that week: “Micron Is Up 285% So Far This Year. Will It Surge or Crash After Earnings?”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 39% here have come back to the old high 85% of the time (65 comparable falls), typically in 80 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 1236.37 within 80 days, reached 85% of the time in 65 comparable falls — about 0.42% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 65 comparable falls in Semiconductors, 85% were back at the old high within 80 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 15% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 1215.27 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 7 settled calls, of which 5 reached target (71.4%), with an average best move of 9.8%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 2
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 55%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Micron Technology, Inc.
Micron Technology, Inc. is a global leader specializing in the development, manufacture, and sale of advanced semiconductor memory and storage solutions. Its operations are structured across four primary business segments: Compute and Networking, Mobile, Storage, and Embedded. The company's product portfolio encompasses a range of memory and data storage technologies. These include high-speed, low-latency Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) components for rapid data retrieval; non-volatile, re-programmable NAND flash storage devices; and fast-read, non-volatile, re-writable NOR memory chips. These innovative solutions are offered under its well-known Micron and Crucial brands, as well as through private label partnerships. Micron's extensive offerings cater to a diverse array of markets and applications. This includes critical infrastructure like cloud servers and enterprise data centers, personal computing (client and graphics), mobile devices such as smartphones, networking equipment, automotive systems, industrial applications, and various consumer electronics. The company utilizes a multi-faceted approach to market its products, employing a direct sales force, independent sales representatives, and a network of distributors and retailers. Additionally, it leverages a web-based direct sales channel and collaborates with various channel and distribution partners. Founded in 1978, Micron Technology, Inc. is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- CEO
- Sanjay Mehrotra
- Employees
- 53,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$1.05T
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 2.22
- Avg volume
- 44.98M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 154.65-1255
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.