MRSH Marsh
Marsh (MRSH) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Financial Services. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, falling on both timeframes
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
The next few months are read from the last 12 months, not the last 2 years: that channel fits this stock's recent turns at least as well (61% against 43%) and it is the one price is respecting now. The last 2 years stay as context: falling, −15% a year. The target of US$241.31 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$196.54, from the last 12 months), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$144.61 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 2 years
- US$147.41 – US$158.35 Falling channel, −15% a year
- 12 months read from
- US$144.61 – US$196.54 Falling channel, −9% a year
- Position in that channel
- 62% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -34% from US$238.223 Apr 2025 → 3 June 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This companyno peer group to compare against
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 29%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 83% of 1151 comparable falls came back, typically in 75 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in April 2025: price fell 34% from 238.22 to 156.48 by June 2026, and has regained 29% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 34% here have come back to the old high 83% of the time (1151 comparable falls), typically in 75 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 241.31 within 272 days, reached 83% of the time in 1151 comparable falls — about 0.13% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (2 years)
- Lower trend line (2 years)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$176.76
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$180.05; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$241.31
by 14 June 2027
Projected move
36.5%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in April 2025: price fell 34% from 238.22 to 156.48 by June 2026, and has regained 29% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 34% here have come back to the old high 83% of the time (1151 comparable falls), typically in 75 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 241.31 within 272 days, reached 83% of the time in 1151 comparable falls — about 0.13% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 1151 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 83% were back at the old high within 75 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 11% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 238.22 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 7
- Lower line touches
- 7
- Fit confidence
- 43%
- Fitted
- 15 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.