MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
Read from the last 2 years of history we hold: rising, drifting +69% a year. The target of US$1,717 is below the nearest ceiling (US$2,113), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$1,308 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 2 years read from
- US$1,308 – US$2,113 Rising channel, +69% a year
- Position in that channel
- -20% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -32% from US$1,6873 June 2026 → 15 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company7 of 24 Semiconductors peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 0%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 92% of 64 comparable falls came back, typically in 64 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 32% from 1686.75 to 1142.53 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 32% here have come back to the old high 92% of the time (64 comparable falls), typically in 64 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 1717.43 within 62 days, reached 92% of the time in 64 comparable falls — about 0.81% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (2 years)
- Lower trend line (2 years)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$1,143
level as at 16 Sept 2026
Our target
US$1,717
by 17 Nov 2026
Projected move
50.3%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 32% from 1686.75 to 1142.53 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 32% here have come back to the old high 92% of the time (64 comparable falls), typically in 64 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 1717.43 within 62 days, reached 92% of the time in 64 comparable falls — about 0.81% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 64 comparable falls in Semiconductors, 92% were back at the old high within 64 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 9% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 1686.75 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 4
- Lower line touches
- 6
- Fit confidence
- 68%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. specializes in the creation, promotion, and sale of advanced semiconductor components for power management. Their innovative solutions cater to a broad spectrum of industries, including information technology, data storage, automotive, industrial applications, telecommunications, and consumer electronics. A core offering consists of direct current (DC) to DC integrated circuits (ICs), which are vital for regulating and transforming electrical voltages in diverse systems such as portable gadgets, wireless local area network access points, personal computers, displays, car entertainment systems, and medical devices. Additionally, they provide integrated circuits specifically designed for lighting control, essential for illuminating liquid crystal display (LCD) panels in laptops, monitors, vehicle navigation systems, and televisions, alongside general illumination products. The company reaches its clientele, which includes major equipment manufacturers, design firms, and electronics assembly providers, as well as other customers, through both direct sales and an extensive network of distributors and resellers across key global regions like China, Taiwan, Europe, South Korea, Southeast Asia, Japan, the United States, and beyond. Founded in 1997, the company's headquarters are situated in Kirkland, Washington.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- CEO
- Michael R. Hsing
- Employees
- 4,501
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$56.17B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.66
- Avg volume
- 839.53K
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 831-1714.09
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.