MLM Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Basic Materials. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below, falling on both timeframes
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
Read from the last 12 months of history we hold: falling, drifting −14% a year. The target of US$714.58 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$634.11), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$513.61 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 12 months read from
- US$513.53 – US$634.11 Falling channel, −14% a year
- Position in that channel
- -14% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -29% from US$706.5910 Feb 2026 → 9 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company1 of 3 Construction Materials peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 0%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 86% of 1140 comparable falls came back, typically in 69 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 29% from 706.59 to 503.87 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Uncovering Potential: Martin Marietta Materials's Earnings Preview”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 29% here have come back to the old high 86% of the time (1140 comparable falls), typically in 69 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 714.58 within 68 days, reached 86% of the time in 1140 comparable falls — about 0.61% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Uncovering Potential: Martin Marietta Materials's Earnings Preview — 10 Feb 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (12 months)
- Lower trend line (12 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$496.92
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$503.87; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$714.58
by 16 Nov 2026
Projected move
43.8%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 29% from 706.59 to 503.87 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Uncovering Potential: Martin Marietta Materials's Earnings Preview”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 29% here have come back to the old high 86% of the time (1140 comparable falls), typically in 69 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 714.58 within 68 days, reached 86% of the time in 1140 comparable falls — about 0.61% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 1140 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 86% were back at the old high within 69 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 10% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 706.59 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 4
- Lower line touches
- 5
- Fit confidence
- 66%
- Fitted
- 9 Sept 2026
About Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. functions as a company specializing in natural resource-derived building materials. This enterprise delivers a wide range of aggregates and other heavy construction components to the building industry, serving both domestic and international markets. Its product portfolio includes foundational raw materials like crushed stone, sand, and gravel, in addition to manufactured items such as ready-mix concrete, asphalt, and comprehensive paving solutions. These offerings are essential for infrastructure projects, commercial and residential developments, and various other sectors including railroads, agriculture, utilities, and environmental applications. Beyond its core construction offerings, Martin Marietta also produces magnesia-based chemicals, which are utilized in industrial, agricultural, and environmental contexts. The company further supplies dolomitic lime, primarily for steel manufacturing and soil stabilization. Its broader chemical products contribute to areas such as flame retardants, wastewater treatment, and pulp and paper production, among other environmental uses. Established in 1939, the firm's main office is situated in Raleigh, North Carolina.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Construction Materials
- CEO
- C. Howard Nye
- Employees
- 9,600
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$30.33B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.11
- Avg volume
- 583.49K
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 502.56-710.97
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.