MELI MercadoLibre, Inc.
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Consumer Cyclical. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
In the buy zone
Price is sitting on the lower trend line — the level that has repeatedly held.
Read from the last 2 years of history we hold: falling, drifting −7% a year. The target of US$2,643 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$2,103), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$1,841 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 2 years read from
- US$1,841 – US$2,103 Falling channel, −7% a year
- Position in that channel
- -1% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -41% from US$2,61130 June 2025 → 15 May 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company2 of 7 Specialty Retail peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 31%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 73% of 9 comparable falls came back, typically in 193 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in June 2025: price fell 41% from 2611.28 to 1547.38 by May 2026, and has regained 31% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Susquehanna Maintains Positive on MercadoLibre, Raises Price Target to $2975”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 41% here have come back to the old high 73% of the time (9 comparable falls), typically in 193 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 2643.45 within 279 days, reached 73% of the time in 9 comparable falls — about 0.15% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Susquehanna Maintains Positive on MercadoLibre, Raises Price Target to $2975 — 26 June 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (2 years)
- Lower trend line (2 years)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$1,839
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$1,873; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$2,643
by 15 June 2027
Projected move
43.7%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in June 2025: price fell 41% from 2611.28 to 1547.38 by May 2026, and has regained 31% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Susquehanna Maintains Positive on MercadoLibre, Raises Price Target to $2975”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 41% here have come back to the old high 73% of the time (9 comparable falls), typically in 193 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 2643.45 within 279 days, reached 73% of the time in 9 comparable falls — about 0.15% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 9 comparable falls in Specialty Retail, 73% were back at the old high within 193 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 11% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 2611.28 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 6
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 39%
- Fitted
- 9 Sept 2026
About MercadoLibre, Inc.
MercadoLibre, Inc. operates as a prominent provider of digital commerce platforms throughout Latin America. Its primary service, the Mercado Libre Marketplace, is an automated online system allowing businesses, independent vendors, and private individuals to list merchandise and finalize sales. Supporting this, the Mercado Pago FinTech platform offers a financial technology solution, facilitating transactions both on and off its e-commerce sites by enabling users to securely send and receive online payments and transfer funds via web and mobile applications. The company further expands its financial offerings through Mercado Fondo, a service that permits users to invest balances held in their Mercado Pago accounts, and Mercado Credito, which extends credit options to qualified merchants and consumers. For logistics, Mercado Envios provides a comprehensive solution, empowering sellers on its platform to utilize third-party delivery services and other logistical partners, including warehousing and fulfillment capabilities. Beyond these core services, MercadoLibre also runs Mercado Libre Classifieds, an online classifieds platform for motor vehicles, real estate, and professional services. Mercado Libre Ads serves as an advertising platform, assisting major retailers and brands in promoting their products and services across the internet. Lastly, Mercado Shops offers a solution for users to establish, manage, and market their personalized online storefronts. Founded in 1999, MercadoLibre, Inc. is headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- CEO
- Ariel Szarfsztejn
- Employees
- 123,670
- Country
- UY
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$99.68B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.31
- Avg volume
- 508.83K
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 1495-2548.5
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.