MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated
Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below, rising on both timeframes
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
Read from the last 12 months of history we hold: rising, drifting +46% a year. The target of US$103.79 is below the nearest ceiling (US$119.08), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$76.42 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 12 months read from
- US$76.48 – US$119.18 Rising channel, +46% a year
- Position in that channel
- -16% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -31% from US$102.1122 June 2026 → 29 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- Its sector15 of 24 Semiconductors peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 2%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 94% of 66 comparable falls came back, typically in 63 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 31% from 102.11 to 70.95 by July 2026, and has regained 2% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 15 of 24 Semiconductors peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. The wire that week: “Watching Microchip Technology; J Capital Research's Equity Dispatch Issues Short Report Titled 'AI Hype Takes You Only So Far'”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 31% here have come back to the old high 94% of the time (66 comparable falls), typically in 63 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 103.79 within 14 days, reached 94% of the time in 66 comparable falls — about 3.23% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Watching Microchip Technology; J Capital Research's Equity Dispatch Issues Short Report Titled 'AI Hype Takes You Only So Far' — 24 June 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (12 months)
- Lower trend line (12 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$69.60
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$71.48; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$103.79
by 30 Sept 2026
Projected move
49.1%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 31% from 102.11 to 70.95 by July 2026, and has regained 2% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 15 of 24 Semiconductors peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. The wire that week: “Watching Microchip Technology; J Capital Research's Equity Dispatch Issues Short Report Titled 'AI Hype Takes You Only So Far'”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 31% here have come back to the old high 94% of the time (66 comparable falls), typically in 63 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 103.79 within 14 days, reached 94% of the time in 66 comparable falls — about 3.23% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 66 comparable falls in Semiconductors, 94% were back at the old high within 63 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 9% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 102.11 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 5
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 65%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Microchip Technology Incorporated
Microchip Technology Incorporated creates, produces, and sells intelligent, interconnected, and secure embedded control solutions to customers throughout the Americas, Europe, and Asia. The company's core offerings include a range of microcontrollers, such as general-purpose 8-bit, 16-bit, and 32-bit models, as well as 32-bit embedded microprocessors. These specialized microcontrollers are designed for numerous applications across industries like automotive, industrial, computing, communications, lighting, power supplies, motor control, human-machine interfaces, security, and various wired and wireless connectivity needs. Beyond its processors, Microchip provides development tools that enable system designers to program its microcontroller and microprocessor units for specific tasks. Its product lineup also features Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) and a broad selection of analog, interface, mixed-signal, and timing components. This extensive category encompasses power management, linear, high-voltage, thermal management, discrete diodes and MOSFETs, radio frequency (RF), drivers, safety, security, USB, Ethernet, wireless, and other interface products. For compact device applications, the company supplies memory products such as serial EEPROM, serial and parallel flash, serial SRAM, and serial EERAM. A significant aspect of Microchip's business involves licensing its SuperFlash embedded flash and NVM technologies. These are provided to foundries, integrated device manufacturers, and design partners for use in manufacturing their own microcontrollers, gate arrays, RF, analog, and neuromorphic computing products that require integrated non-volatile memory. Moreover, Microchip delivers engineering services, along with wafer foundry, assembly, and test subcontracting manufacturing services. It also produces specialized timing systems, application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), and aerospace products. Microchip Technology Incorporated was established in 1989 and is headquartered in Chandler, Arizona.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- CEO
- Steve Sanghi
- Employees
- 17,900
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$40.29B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.74
- Avg volume
- 11.11M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 48.52-105.91
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.