MCD McDonald's Corporation
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Consumer Cyclical. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 8 comparable calls have settled; 37.5% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
In the buy zone, falling on both timeframes
Price is sitting on the lower trend line — the level that has repeatedly held.
The next few months are read from the last 7 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (68% against 88%). The last 12 months stay as context: falling, −14% a year. The target of US$340.34 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$270.37, from the last 7 months), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$253.86 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 7 months read from
- US$253.86 – US$270.37 Falling channel, −33% a year
- Position in that channel
- -32% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -25% from US$336.9027 Feb 2026 → 11 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company1 of 4 Restaurants peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 0%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 89% of 1032 comparable falls came back, typically in 65 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in February 2026: price fell 25% from 336.90 to 252.56 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning McDonald's Stock In The Last 20 Years”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 25% here have come back to the old high 89% of the time (1032 comparable falls), typically in 65 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 340.34 within 60 days, reached 89% of the time in 1032 comparable falls — about 0.58% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning McDonald's Stock In The Last 20 Years — 24 Feb 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (7 months)
- Lower trend line (7 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
We replayed these rules over this stock's own history and the target was reached on only 3 of 8 calls. Its swings do not respect the channel reliably enough for a published call, and no alerts are sent. The numbers below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy now
US$248.49
last close · 17 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$252.85; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$340.34
by 15 Nov 2026
Projected move
37.0%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 8 settled calls, of which 3 reached target (37.5%), with an average best move of 5.3%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 5
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 88%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About McDonald's Corporation
McDonald's Corporation operates and licenses its renowned fast-food chain worldwide, with a significant presence in both the United States and international markets. Their comprehensive menu offers classic items like hamburgers and cheeseburgers, a variety of chicken options including sandwiches and nuggets, alongside lighter choices such as wraps, french fries, and salads. For breakfast, patrons can select from offerings like biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, and hotcakes. Additionally, the company provides oatmeal, an assortment of desserts including milkshakes, sundaes, and soft-serve ice cream, plus a selection of baked goods. A wide array of soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages completes their offering. By December 31, 2021, the corporation's global network encompassed 40,031 establishments. McDonald's Corporation, founded in 1940, has its main corporate office located in Chicago, Illinois.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- CEO
- Christopher J. Kempczinski
- Employees
- 150,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$192.50B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 0.42
- Avg volume
- 4.39M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 260.96-341.75
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.