LEU Centrus Energy Corp.
Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Energy. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (TheilβSen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
In the buy zone, falling on both timeframes
Price is sitting on the lower trend line β the level that has repeatedly held.
Read from the last 12 months of history we hold: falling, drifting β55% a year. The target of US$179.86 is below the nearest ceiling (US$197.15), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$133.99 β the floor of the channel being read β after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 12 months read from
- US$133.94 β US$197.15 Falling channel, β55% a year
- Position in that channel
- 12% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -68% from US$435.6415 Oct 2025 β 29 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This companyno peer group to compare against
- Does it resolve?
- Unsettled too close to a coin toss on the record to call
- Regained so far
- 1%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 46% of 409 comparable falls came back, typically in 163 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in October 2025: price fell 68% from 435.64 to 138.30 by September 2026, and has regained 1% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: βJim Cramer: Rare Earth Stocks Are On Fire β And That's The Problemβ. What happens next is not settled: falls of about 68% here have come back to the old high 46% of the time (409 comparable falls), typically in 163 days, which is too close to a coin toss to price a recovery from.
Reported at the time: Jim Cramer: Rare Earth Stocks Are On Fire β And That's The Problem β 15 Oct 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (12 months)
- Lower trend line (12 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$141.89
last close Β· 5 Oct 2026
Channel buy is US$160.59; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$179.86
by 29 Nov 2026
Projected move
26.8%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy β the best price available now.
The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 3 touches on the ceiling, 3 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor β the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at β 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stockβs own β its average, its volatility β but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw β 58% against 71% β because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 15 times so far, reaching target 93% of the time. The sell price is the exit with the highest expected return per day held among the levels this path actually supports β the historical size that path supports, not a farther peak the line never reaches. The fitted path's nearer top is 23% above the entry; 12% is the size that paid the most per day of money tied up here, measured over 8 stretches of this stockβs own record, reached 50% of the time, typically in 6 days. A recovery back to an old high is only published when its expected $/day, dated by when the path itself would get there, truly beats this nearer top. Holding through a dip past this exit would lower that rate. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out β those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 48%
- Fitted
- 6 Oct 2026
About Centrus Energy Corp.
Centrus Energy Corp. is a global provider of essential nuclear fuel and associated services to the nuclear power industry, serving markets including the United States, Japan, and Belgium. The company operates through two primary divisions: Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) and Technical Solutions. The LEU segment specializes in supplying key components for nuclear energy production, offering separative work units (SWU) β either as a standalone part of LEU or combined with natural uranium β as well as natural uranium, primarily to utilities operating nuclear power plants. Conversely, the Technical Solutions segment offers a comprehensive array of services, encompassing technical expertise, manufacturing, engineering design, procurement, construction management, and operational support. This segment caters to both public and private sector clients, with notable involvement in projects such as the engineering and testing of the American Centrifuge. Established in 1998, the company was formerly known as USEC Inc. before officially changing its name to Centrus Energy Corp. in September 2014. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Bethesda, Maryland.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Uranium
- CEO
- Amir V. Vexler
- Employees
- 467
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings β that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- β
- Profitability
- β
- Financial health
- β
- Cash generation
- β
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$2.68B
- Enterprise value
- β
- Beta
- 1.35
- Avg volume
- 773.87K
- Revenue per share
- β
- Dividend yield
- β
- 52-week range
- 135.75-464.25
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- β
- PEG
- β
- Price / sales
- β
- Price / book
- β
- EV / EBITDA
- β
- Gross margin
- β
- Operating margin
- β
- Net margin
- β
- Current ratio
- β
- Quick ratio
- β
- Debt / equity
- β
- Interest cover
- β
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.