IVV iShares Core S&P 500 ETF
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Listed on ARCA. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, rising on both timeframes
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
The next few months are read from the last 12 months, not the last 2 years: that channel fits this stock's recent turns at least as well (58% against 47%) and it is the one price is respecting now. The last 2 years stay as context: rising, +18% a year. The target of US$802.18 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$795.19, from the last 2 years), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$747.32 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 2 years
- US$767.85 – US$795.19 Rising channel, +18% a year
- 12 months read from
- US$747.32 – US$795.69 Rising channel, +18% a year
- Position in that channel
- 17% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (2 years)
- Lower trend line (2 years)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$755.67
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$756.77; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$802.18
by 18 Nov 2026
Projected move
6.2%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 9 touches on the ceiling, 7 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor — the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at — 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 8 times so far, reaching target 63% of the time — too few to mean much on its own. The sell price comes from where this stock is projected to be, not from a minimum worth taking: the fitted path reaches 8% above the entry within 90 days, and of the sizes that path supports, 6% is the one that has returned the most per day of money tied up here — measured over the 10 times this entry has come up on this chart, reached 80% of the time, typically in 31 days. Smaller sizes got there sooner but paid less for the weeks they used; larger ones need a break above the projected ceiling, which is not the base case. The date published is whichever is later: that typical time, or the day the projected path itself reaches the price. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.
- Upper line touches
- 9
- Lower line touches
- 7
- Fit confidence
- 47%
- Fitted
- 13 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.