ITB iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Listed on BATS. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, falling on both timeframes
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
The next few months are read from the last 12 months, not the last 2 years: that channel fits this stock's recent turns at least as well (47% against 43%) and it is the one price is respecting now. The last 2 years stay as context: falling, −7% a year. The nearest ceiling overhead is US$98.76, from the last 12 months. What would overturn this: a close below US$81.07 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 2 years
- US$84.18 – US$101.72 Falling channel, −7% a year
- 12 months read from
- US$81.07 – US$98.76 Falling channel, −9% a year
- Position in that channel
- 40% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -33% from US$126.5718 Oct 2024 → 8 Apr 2025
- Whose problem it was
- This companyno peer group to compare against
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 13%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 84% of 1188 comparable falls came back, typically in 71 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in October 2024: price fell 33% from 126.57 to 84.19 by April 2025, and has regained 13% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “PulteGroup Q3 Beats Estimates: Home Closings Up 12%, CEO Highlights Fed's Role in Addressing Affordability”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 33% here have come back to the old high 84% of the time (1188 comparable falls), typically in 71 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 128.18 within 3737 days, reached 84% of the time in 1188 comparable falls — about 0.01% a day held.
Reported at the time: PulteGroup Q3 Beats Estimates: Home Closings Up 12%, CEO Highlights Fed's Role in Addressing Affordability — 22 Oct 2024
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (2 years)
- Lower trend line (2 years)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
No published call today because its projected path only reaches 6.0% above the entry within 90 days, under the 6.0% floor a call has to clear to be worth making. No alerts are sent. The buy and target below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy at or below
US$84.17
level as at 17 Sept 2026
Our target
US$98.84
by 16 Dec 2026
Projected move
17.4%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
- Upper line touches
- 5
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 43%
- Fitted
- 11 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.