IOT Samsara Inc.
Samsara Inc. (IOT) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
Read from the last 9 months of history we hold: rising, drifting +54% a year. The target of US$46.85 is below the nearest ceiling (US$61.23), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$31.98 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- US$31.98 – US$61.23 Rising channel, +54% a year
- Position in that channel
- 30% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -60% from US$60.9718 Feb 2025 → 5 Feb 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 1 Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Unsettled too close to a coin toss on the record to call
- Regained so far
- 47%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 54% of 515 comparable falls came back, typically in 146 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in February 2025: price fell 60% from 60.97 to 24.28 by February 2026, and has regained 47% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “(IOT) - Analyzing Samsara's Short Interest”. What happens next is not settled: falls of about 60% here have come back to the old high 54% of the time (515 comparable falls), typically in 146 days, which is too close to a coin toss to price a recovery from.
Reported at the time: (IOT) - Analyzing Samsara's Short Interest — 14 Feb 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$36.04
level as at 7 Oct 2026
Our target
US$46.85
by 5 Nov 2026
Projected move
30.0%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 2 touches on the ceiling, 4 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor — the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at — 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 8 times so far, reaching target 88% of the time — too few to mean much on its own. The sell price comes from where this stock is projected to be, not from a minimum worth taking: the fitted path reaches more than 30% above the entry within 90 days, and of the sizes that path supports, 30% is the one that has returned the most per day of money tied up here — measured over the 8 times this entry has come up on this chart, reached 88% of the time, typically in 29 days. Smaller sizes got there sooner but paid less for the weeks they used; larger ones need a break above the projected ceiling, which is not the base case. The date published is whichever is later: that typical time, or the day the projected path itself reaches the price. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.
- Upper line touches
- 2
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 86%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.