INDA iShares MSCI India ETF
iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Listed on BATS. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
In the buy zone, falling on both timeframes
Price is sitting on the lower trend line — the level that has repeatedly held.
The next few months are read from the last 9 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (70% against 84%). The last 12 months stay as context: falling, −11% a year. The nearest ceiling overhead is US$49.84, from the last 12 months. What would overturn this: a close below US$48.44 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- US$48.44 – US$50.05 Falling channel, −11% a year
- Position in that channel
- -60% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -23% from US$58.7926 Sept 2024 → 30 Mar 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This companyno peer group to compare against
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 23%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 90% of 956 comparable falls came back, typically in 63 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in September 2024: price fell 23% from 58.79 to 45.41 by March 2026, and has regained 23% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Indian Railways-Wabtec JV's Marhowra Plant To Begin Exporting Evolution Series Locomotives To Africa By 2025”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 23% here have come back to the old high 90% of the time (956 comparable falls), typically in 63 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 59.34 within 591 days, reached 90% of the time in 956 comparable falls — about 0.04% a day held.
Reported at the time: Indian Railways-Wabtec JV's Marhowra Plant To Begin Exporting Evolution Series Locomotives To Africa By 2025 — 24 Sept 2024
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
No published call today because its projected path only reaches 1.5% above the entry within 90 days, under the 6.0% floor a call has to clear to be worth making. No alerts are sent. The buy and target below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy now
US$47.46
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$48.45; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$49.12
by 16 Dec 2026
Projected move
3.5%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
- Upper line touches
- 4
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 84%
- Fitted
- 14 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.