ICE Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Financial Services. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
In the sell zone, falling on both timeframes
Price has run up to the upper trend line — the level it has repeatedly stalled at.
The next few months are read from the last 12 months, not the last 18 months: that channel fits this stock's recent turns at least as well (71% against 59%) and it is the one price is respecting now. The last 18 months stay as context: falling, −10% a year. The target of US$188.48 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$154.92, from the last 18 months), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$111.01 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 18 months
- US$133.43 – US$154.92 Falling channel, −10% a year
- 12 months read from
- US$111.01 – US$155.89 Falling channel, −7% a year
- Position in that channel
- 96% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -34% from US$186.084 Aug 2025 → 29 June 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 3 Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 55%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 83% of 1172 comparable falls came back, typically in 74 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in August 2025: price fell 34% from 186.08 to 122.88 by June 2026, and has regained 55% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Intercontinental Exchange Q2 Adj. EPS $1.81 Beats $1.75 Estimate, Sales $2.543B Beat $2.513B Estimate”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 34% here have come back to the old high 83% of the time (1172 comparable falls), typically in 74 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 188.48 within 69 days, reached 83% of the time in 1172 comparable falls — about 0.28% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Intercontinental Exchange Q2 Adj. EPS $1.81 Beats $1.75 Estimate, Sales $2.543B Beat $2.513B Estimate — 31 July 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (18 months)
- Lower trend line (18 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$154.15
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$157.76; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$188.48
by 23 Nov 2026
Projected move
22.3%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in August 2025: price fell 34% from 186.08 to 122.88 by June 2026, and has regained 55% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Intercontinental Exchange Q2 Adj. EPS $1.81 Beats $1.75 Estimate, Sales $2.543B Beat $2.513B Estimate”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 34% here have come back to the old high 83% of the time (1172 comparable falls), typically in 74 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 188.48 within 69 days, reached 83% of the time in 1172 comparable falls — about 0.28% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 1172 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 83% were back at the old high within 74 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 11% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 186.08 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 5
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 59%
- Fitted
- 15 Sept 2026
About Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) manages a global network of regulated financial venues, encompassing exchanges, clearing houses, and listing platforms. These operations serve diverse markets, including commodities, financial instruments, fixed income products, and equities, with a geographical footprint spanning key financial centers such as the United States, United Kingdom, European Union, Singapore, Israel, and Canada. The company's business is segmented into three core areas: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. Within its Exchanges segment, ICE oversees a robust network comprising 13 regulated exchanges and 6 clearing houses. These extensive marketplaces enable the listing, trading, and clearing of a wide spectrum of derivatives contracts and financial securities. This includes futures and options across diverse sectors such as energy, agriculture, metals, financials, and equities, in addition to providing critical listing, market data, and connectivity solutions. The Fixed Income and Data Services division provides comprehensive analytics and execution services for fixed income products, manages Credit Default Swap (CDS) clearing, and offers multi-asset class data and network solutions. Furthermore, its Mortgage Technology segment delivers an advanced, proprietary platform designed for residential mortgage origination. This division also provides closing solutions that streamline connections across the mortgage supply chain and facilitate secure information exchange, alongside data analytics and "Data as a Service" offerings for lenders to access vital origination insights. Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. was established in 2000 and maintains its headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia.
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
- CEO
- Jeffrey C. Sprecher
- Employees
- 12,725
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
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- Profitability
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- Financial health
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- Cash generation
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Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$90.52B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 0.93
- Avg volume
- 4.16M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 121.79-177.76
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
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- PEG
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- Price / sales
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- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
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- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.