IBM International Business Machines Corporation
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 8 comparable calls have settled; 75% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, falling this year inside a rising 2.0007231754819887-year channel
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
The next few months are read from the last 12 months, not the last 2 years: that channel fits this stock's recent turns at least as well (63% against 52%) and it is the one price is respecting now. The last 2 years stay as context: rising, +10% a year. A stock can be falling inside a channel that still rises over years; that is what this is, and only one of the two can be the near-term expectation. The target of US$334.04 is below the nearest ceiling (US$347.57), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$188.75 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 2 years
- US$230.11 – US$360.26 Rising channel, +10% a year
- 12 months read from
- US$188.75 – US$347.57 Falling channel, −22% a year
- Position in that channel
- 31% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -38% from US$329.542 June 2026 → 22 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 2 Information Technology Services peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 34%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 80% of 1007 comparable falls came back, typically in 82 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 38% from 329.54 to 205.87 by July 2026, and has regained 34% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “IBM and Red Hat Launch Project Lightwell To Commit $5B To New AI Capabilities And 20K+ Engineers Globally For Securing Open Source Software”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 38% here have come back to the old high 80% of the time (1007 comparable falls), typically in 82 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 334.04 within 113 days, reached 80% of the time in 1007 comparable falls — about 0.31% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: IBM and Red Hat Launch Project Lightwell To Commit $5B To New AI Capabilities And 20K+ Engineers Globally For Securing Open Source Software — 28 May 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (2 years)
- Lower trend line (2 years)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$237.62
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$248.40; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$334.04
by 7 Jan 2027
Projected move
40.6%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 38% from 329.54 to 205.87 by July 2026, and has regained 34% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “IBM and Red Hat Launch Project Lightwell To Commit $5B To New AI Capabilities And 20K+ Engineers Globally For Securing Open Source Software”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 38% here have come back to the old high 80% of the time (1007 comparable falls), typically in 82 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 334.04 within 113 days, reached 80% of the time in 1007 comparable falls — about 0.31% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 1007 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 80% were back at the old high within 82 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 12% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 329.54 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 8 settled calls, of which 6 reached target (75%), with an average best move of 13.1%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 7
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 52%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About International Business Machines Corporation
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) delivers comprehensive technology solutions and services across the globe. The company's operations are structured into four primary segments: Software, Consulting, Infrastructure, and Financing. The Software division provides hybrid cloud platforms and a range of software offerings, including Red Hat's enterprise open-source solutions. It also develops software for business automation, AIOps and management, integration, and application servers, in addition to data and artificial intelligence tools. This segment further supplies security software and services for threat, data, and identity management, and offers critical transaction processing software that supports essential on-premise workloads for industries such as banking, airlines, and retail. The Consulting arm delivers business transformation services, which encompass strategy development, business process design and operational improvements, data and analytics insights, and system integration. It additionally provides technology consulting and specialized application and cloud platform services. IBM's Infrastructure segment offers both on-premises and cloud-based server and storage solutions, specifically tailored for clients' crucial and regulated operations. It also extends support and solutions for hybrid cloud infrastructure, alongside remanufacturing and remarketing services for used equipment. The Financing segment provides various financial services, such as leasing, installment payment plans, loan financing, and short-term working capital solutions. Originally established in 1911 as the Computing-Tabulating-Recording Co., the company is now known as International Business Machines Corporation and maintains its headquarters in Armonk, New York.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Information Technology Services
- CEO
- Arvind Krishna
- Employees
- 264,300
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$221.30B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 0.70
- Avg volume
- 9.39M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 199.19-332.46
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.