IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

Suggested path

Last close is our buy — the best price available now.

The trend broke in October 2025: price fell 53% from 71.29 to 33.27 by June 2026, and has regained 30% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Bitcoin Hits $120,000 As JPMorgan Lifts Year-End Target To $165,000”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 53% here have come back to the old high 61% of the time (607 comparable falls), typically in 124 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 72.23 within 185 days, reached 61% of the time in 607 comparable falls — about 0.33% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 607 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 61% were back at the old high within 124 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 18% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 71.29 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.

Upper line touches

3

Lower line touches

6

Fit confidence

34%

Fitted

14 Sept 2026