HII Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Consumer Cyclical. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, falling on both timeframes
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
The next few months are read from the last 9 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (64% against 74%). The last 12 months stay as context: falling, −17% a year. The target of US$284.91 is below the nearest ceiling (US$301.61), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$230.74 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- US$230.74 – US$301.61 Falling channel, −51% a year
- Position in that channel
- 41% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -43% from US$449.292 Mar 2026 → 28 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This companyno peer group to compare against
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 3%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 75% of 878 comparable falls came back, typically in 89 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in March 2026: price fell 43% from 449.29 to 257.12 by September 2026, and has regained 3% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Reported Earlier, HII's Ingalls Shipbuilding Marks Official Start Of Construction Of USS Philadelphia LPD 32 Flight II San Antonio-Class Ship Supporting 700 Sailors And Marines”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 43% here have come back to the old high 75% of the time (878 comparable falls), typically in 89 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it.
Reported at the time: Reported Earlier, HII's Ingalls Shipbuilding Marks Official Start Of Construction Of USS Philadelphia LPD 32 Flight II San Antonio-Class Ship Supporting 700 Sailors And Marines — 4 Mar 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$260.02
last close · 7 Oct 2026
Channel buy is US$263.81; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$284.91
by 2 Dec 2026
Projected move
9.6%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The published exit is the level on this path with the highest expected return per day held (this stock’s own size), not a farther recovery the projected ceiling does not reach. Holding through a dip past this exit would lower that rate.
- Upper line touches
- 2
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 74%
- Fitted
- 7 Oct 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.