HD The Home Depot, Inc.
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Consumer Cyclical. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 8 comparable calls have settled; 37.5% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
Read from the last 2 years of history we hold: falling, drifting −9% a year. The nearest ceiling overhead is US$352.02. What would overturn this: a close below US$324.00 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 2 years read from
- US$324.00 – US$352.02 Falling channel, −9% a year
- Position in that channel
- -76% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -29% from US$414.806 Dec 2024 → 15 May 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 1 Home Improvement peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 10%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 86% of 1145 comparable falls came back, typically in 70 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in December 2024: price fell 29% from 414.80 to 295.31 by May 2026, and has regained 10% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Unpacking the Latest Options Trading Trends in Home Depot”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 29% here have come back to the old high 86% of the time (1145 comparable falls), typically in 70 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 419.49 within 1247 days, reached 86% of the time in 1145 comparable falls — about 0.03% a day held.
Reported at the time: Unpacking the Latest Options Trading Trends in Home Depot — 2 Dec 2024
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (2 years)
- Lower trend line (2 years)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
We replayed these rules over this stock's own history and the target was reached on only 3 of 8 calls. Its swings do not respect the channel reliably enough for a published call, and no alerts are sent. The numbers below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy now
US$302.62
last close · 17 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$324.00; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$337.48
by 17 Dec 2026
Projected move
11.5%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 8 settled calls, of which 3 reached target (37.5%), with an average best move of 6.2%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 4
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 30%
- Fitted
- 17 Sept 2026
About The Home Depot, Inc.
The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a prominent retailer specializing in home renovation and improvement. Through its expansive network of "The Home Depot" stores, it furnishes consumers with an extensive array of goods, including building materials, home enhancement products, lawn and garden supplies, decorative items, and facilities maintenance, repair, and operational (MRO) supplies. In addition to selling products, the company extends professional installation services for key home features like flooring, cabinetry (including makeovers), countertops, furnaces and central air conditioning systems, and window replacements. Customers can also access tool and equipment rental options. Its diverse clientele includes both individual homeowners and a broad spectrum of professional clients, such as renovators, general contractors, maintenance personnel, handymen, property managers, building service contractors, and specialized tradespeople like electricians, plumbers, and painters. The firm also distributes its merchandise through several online platforms, notably homedepot.com, along with specialized sites such as blinds.com for bespoke window coverings and thecompanystore.com for home textiles and decorative goods. By the end of 2021, the corporation operated a total of 2,317 outlets across the United States. Incorporated in 1978, The Home Depot, Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Home Improvement
- CEO
- Edward Decker
- Employees
- 472,400
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$320.12B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 0.95
- Avg volume
- 4.53M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 289.1-426.75
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.