HCA HCA Healthcare, Inc.
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Healthcare. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken out above, falling on both timeframes
Price has closed above the channel. The fitted trend may no longer describe this stock.
The next few months are read from the last 6 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (29% against 53%). The last 12 months stay as context: falling, −14% a year. Price is above both fitted ceilings, so there is no line overhead to break — and no fitted resistance to price the target against either. What would overturn this: a close below US$350.10 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 6 months read from
- US$350.10 – US$383.55 Falling channel, −34% a year
- 12 months
- US$342.29 – US$424.69 Falling channel, −14% a year
- Position in that channel
- 240% above the ceiling of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -34% from US$543.139 Mar 2026 → 8 June 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This companyno peer group to compare against
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 38%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 83% of 1189 comparable falls came back, typically in 72 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in March 2026: price fell 34% from 543.13 to 360.55 by June 2026, and has regained 38% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “TD Cowen Maintains Buy on HCA Healthcare, Lowers Price Target to $561”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 34% here have come back to the old high 83% of the time (1189 comparable falls), typically in 72 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 549.99 within 173 days, reached 83% of the time in 1189 comparable falls — about 0.16% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: TD Cowen Maintains Buy on HCA Healthcare, Lowers Price Target to $561 — 10 Mar 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (6 months)
- Lower trend line (6 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$430.36
level as at 16 Sept 2026
Our target
US$549.99
by 8 Mar 2027
Projected move
27.8%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The trend broke in March 2026: price fell 34% from 543.13 to 360.55 by June 2026, and has regained 38% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “TD Cowen Maintains Buy on HCA Healthcare, Lowers Price Target to $561”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 34% here have come back to the old high 83% of the time (1189 comparable falls), typically in 72 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 549.99 within 173 days, reached 83% of the time in 1189 comparable falls — about 0.16% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 1189 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 83% were back at the old high within 72 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 10% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 543.13 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 2
- Fit confidence
- 53%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.