GFI Gold Fields Ltd ADR
Gold Fields Ltd ADR (GFI) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Energy. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
Read from the last 2 years of history we hold: rising, drifting more than +100% a year. The target of US$59.34 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$48.20), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$33.42 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 2 years read from
- US$33.42 – US$48.20 Rising channel, more than +100% a year
- Position in that channel
- 58% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -47% from US$58.9228 Jan 2026 → 20 July 2026
- Whose problem it was
- Its sector5 of 7 Gold and Silver Ores peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 42%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 54% of 11 comparable falls came back, typically in 37 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in January 2026: price fell 47% from 58.92 to 31.27 by July 2026, and has regained 42% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 5 of 7 Gold and Silver Ores peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 47% here have come back to the old high 54% of the time (11 comparable falls), typically in 37 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 59.34 within 82 days, reached 54% of the time in 11 comparable falls — about 0.47% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (2 years)
- Lower trend line (2 years)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$41.97
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$42.90; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$59.34
by 7 Dec 2026
Projected move
41.4%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in January 2026: price fell 47% from 58.92 to 31.27 by July 2026, and has regained 42% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 5 of 7 Gold and Silver Ores peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 47% here have come back to the old high 54% of the time (11 comparable falls), typically in 37 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 59.34 within 82 days, reached 54% of the time in 11 comparable falls — about 0.47% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 11 comparable falls in Gold and Silver Ores, 54% were back at the old high within 37 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 14% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 58.92 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 31%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.