FN Fabrinet
Fabrinet (FN) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
In the buy zone, rising on both timeframes
Price is sitting on the lower trend line — the level that has repeatedly held.
Read from the last 12 months of history we hold: rising, drifting +45% a year. The target of US$536.17 is below the nearest ceiling (US$1,008), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$399.94 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 12 months read from
- US$399.90 – US$1,010 Rising channel, +45% a year
- Position in that channel
- -1% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -50% from US$747.0714 May 2026 → 15 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company2 of 6 Hardware, Equipment & Parts peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 0%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 67% of 7 comparable falls came back, typically in 125 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in May 2026: price fell 50% from 747.07 to 375.33 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 50% here have come back to the old high 67% of the time (7 comparable falls), typically in 125 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 764.66 within 124 days, reached 67% of the time in 7 comparable falls — about 0.84% a day held.
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (12 months)
- Lower trend line (12 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$392.82
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$446.81; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$536.17
by 4 Oct 2026
Projected move
36.5%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 5 touches on the ceiling, 3 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor — the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at — 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 11 times so far, reaching target 82% of the time. The sell price comes from where this stock is projected to be, not from a minimum worth taking: the fitted path reaches more than 30% above the entry within 90 days, and of the sizes that path supports, 20% is the one that has returned the most per day of money tied up here — measured over the 12 times this entry has come up on this chart, reached 75% of the time, typically in 18 days. Smaller sizes got there sooner but paid less for the weeks they used; larger ones need a break above the projected ceiling, which is not the base case. The date published is whichever is later: that typical time, or the day the projected path itself reaches the price. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.
- Upper line touches
- 5
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 67%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Fabrinet
Fabrinet provides optical packaging and precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing services in North America, the Asia-Pacific, and Europe. The company offers a range of advanced optical and electro-mechanical capabilities in the manufacturing process, including process design and engineering, supply chain management, manufacturing, printed circuit board assembly, packaging, integration, final assembly, and testing. Its products include switching products, including reconfigurable optical add-drop multiplexers, optical amplifiers, modulators, and other optical components and modules that enable network managers to route voice, video, and data communications traffic through fiber optic cables at various wavelengths, speeds, and over various distances. The company’s products also comprise transceivers, tunable lasers, and transponders; and active optical cables, which provide high-speed interconnect capabilities for data centers and computing clusters, as well as Infiniband, Ethernet, fiber channel, and optical backplane connectivity. In addition, it provides solid state, diode-pumped, gas, and fiber lasers used in semiconductor processing, biotechnology and medical device, metrology, and material processing industries; and differential pressure, micro-gyro, fuel, and other sensors used in automobiles, as well as non-contact temperature measurement sensors for the medical industry. Further, the company designs and fabricates application-specific crystals, lenses, prisms, mirrors, laser components, and substrates; and other custom and standard borosilicate, clear fused quartz, and synthetic fused silica glass products. It serves original equipment manufacturers of optical communication components, modules and sub-systems, industrial lasers, automotive components, medical devices, and sensors. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in George Town, the Cayman Islands.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Hardware, Equipment & Parts
- CEO
- Seamus Grady
- Employees
- 21,521
- Country
- KY
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$13.43B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.21
- Avg volume
- 971.81K
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 348.01-748.89
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.