FLR Fluor Corporation
Fluor Corporation (FLR) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Industrials. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
Read from the last 18 months of history we hold: rising, drifting +26% a year. The target of US$58.71 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$58.68), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$43.18 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 18 months read from
- US$43.18 – US$58.68 Rising channel, +26% a year
- Position in that channel
- 64% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -48% from US$58.957 Nov 2024 → 8 Apr 2025
- Whose problem it was
- This companyno peer group to compare against
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 79%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 68% of 729 comparable falls came back, typically in 108 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in November 2024: price fell 48% from 58.95 to 30.87 by April 2025, and has regained 79% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Uncovering Potential: Fluor's Earnings Preview”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 48% here have come back to the old high 68% of the time (729 comparable falls), typically in 108 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it.
Reported at the time: Uncovering Potential: Fluor's Earnings Preview — 7 Nov 2024
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (18 months)
- Lower trend line (18 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$51.05
level as at 26 Sept 2026
Our target
US$58.71
by 17 Oct 2026
Projected move
15.0%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 5 touches on the ceiling, 4 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor — the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at — 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 13 times so far, reaching target 92% of the time. The sell price is the exit with the highest expected return per day held among the levels this path actually supports — the historical size that path supports, not a farther peak the line never reaches. The fitted path's nearer top is 17% above the entry; 15% is the size that paid the most per day of money tied up here, measured over 11 stretches of this stock’s own record, reached 73% of the time, typically in 21 days. A recovery back to an old high is only published when its expected $/day, dated by when the path itself would get there, truly beats this nearer top. Holding through a dip past this exit would lower that rate. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.
- Upper line touches
- 5
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 56%
- Fitted
- 24 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.