FBTC Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Financial Services. Listed on BATS. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken out above
Price has closed above the channel. The fitted trend may no longer describe this stock.
Read from the last 11 months of history we hold: falling, drifting −42% a year. Price is above both fitted ceilings, so there is no line overhead to break — and no fitted resistance to price the target against either. What would overturn this: a close below US$48.33 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 11 months read from
- US$48.33 – US$51.81 Falling channel, −42% a year
- Position in that channel
- 510% above the ceiling of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -53% from US$109.506 Oct 2025 → 30 June 2026
- Whose problem it was
- Its sector2 of 3 Commodity Contracts Brokers & Dealers peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 26%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 60% of 608 comparable falls came back, typically in 124 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in October 2025: price fell 53% from 109.50 to 51.10 by June 2026, and has regained 26% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 2 of 3 Commodity Contracts Brokers & Dealers peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. The wire that week: “Bitcoin Hits $120,000 As JPMorgan Lifts Year-End Target To $165,000”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 53% here have come back to the old high 60% of the time (608 comparable falls), typically in 124 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 110.95 within 231 days, reached 60% of the time in 608 comparable falls — about 0.29% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Bitcoin Hits $120,000 As JPMorgan Lifts Year-End Target To $165,000 — 2 Oct 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (11 months)
- Lower trend line (11 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$66.10
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$66.19; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$110.95
by 5 May 2027
Projected move
67.9%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in October 2025: price fell 53% from 109.50 to 51.10 by June 2026, and has regained 26% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 2 of 3 Commodity Contracts Brokers & Dealers peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. The wire that week: “Bitcoin Hits $120,000 As JPMorgan Lifts Year-End Target To $165,000”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 53% here have come back to the old high 60% of the time (608 comparable falls), typically in 124 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 110.95 within 231 days, reached 60% of the time in 608 comparable falls — about 0.29% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 608 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 60% were back at the old high within 124 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 18% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 109.50 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 61%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.