ETHA iShares Ethereum Trust ETF Shares
iShares Ethereum Trust ETF Shares (ETHA) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Financial Services. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken out above
Price has closed above the channel. The fitted trend may no longer describe this stock.
Read from the last 18 months of history we hold: falling, drifting −28% a year. Price is above both fitted ceilings, so there is no line overhead to break — and no fitted resistance to price the target against either. What would overturn this: a close below US$10.63 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 18 months read from
- US$10.63 – US$12.96 Falling channel, −28% a year
- Position in that channel
- 321% above the ceiling of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -68% from US$36.5822 Aug 2025 → 25 June 2026
- Whose problem it was
- Its sector2 of 3 Commodity Contracts Brokers & Dealers peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Unsettled too close to a coin toss on the record to call
- Regained so far
- 26%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 47% of 402 comparable falls came back, typically in 163 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in August 2025: price fell 68% from 36.58 to 11.74 by June 2026, and has regained 26% of that fall since. It was not this company alone: 2 of 3 Commodity Contracts Brokers & Dealers peers fell as far within weeks of it, so the fall was the sector repricing rather than news about this business. The wire that week: “Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs Diverge As ETH Takes The Lead BlackRock's IBIT Shines”. What happens next is not settled: falls of about 68% here have come back to the old high 47% of the time (402 comparable falls), typically in 163 days, which is too close to a coin toss to price a recovery from.
Reported at the time: Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs Diverge As ETH Takes The Lead BlackRock's IBIT Shines — 18 Aug 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (18 months)
- Lower trend line (18 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
No published call today because price has closed 40.1% clear above the channel, so the fitted lines no longer describe where it is. No alerts are sent. The buy and target below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy at or below
US$10.13
level as at 17 Sept 2026
Our target
US$10.62
by 16 Dec 2026
Projected move
4.8%
gross, before costs
Price is at or through our target.
- Upper line touches
- 4
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 52%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.