CVNA Carvana Co.
Carvana Co. (CVNA) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Consumer Cyclical. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
In the buy zone
Price is sitting on the lower trend line — the level that has repeatedly held.
Read from the last 6 months of history we hold: rising, drifting +9% a year. The nearest ceiling overhead is US$77.17. What would overturn this: a close below US$66.47 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 6 months read from
- US$66.47 – US$77.17 Rising channel, +9% a year
- Position in that channel
- -10% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -41% from US$95.6922 Jan 2026 → 20 Mar 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This companyno peer group to compare against
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 23%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 76% of 887 comparable falls came back, typically in 86 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in January 2026: price fell 41% from 95.69 to 56.25 by March 2026, and has regained 23% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “What's Driving the Market Sentiment Around Carvana Co?”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 41% here have come back to the old high 76% of the time (887 comparable falls), typically in 86 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 96.97 within 631 days, reached 76% of the time in 887 comparable falls — about 0.08% a day held.
Reported at the time: What's Driving the Market Sentiment Around Carvana Co? — 21 Jan 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (6 months)
- Lower trend line (6 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Our target
No published call today because no target size has paid on this stock’s own record, so there is none to publish. No alerts are sent. The buy and target below are still this site's read of the fitted channel.
Buy now
US$65.42
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$66.48; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$78.87
by 16 Dec 2026
Projected move
20.6%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
- Upper line touches
- 2
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 73%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
Company information
Fundamentals are not available for this instrument from the current data provider.
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.