COF Capital One Financial Corporation
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Financial Services. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
In the sell zone, falling this year inside a rising 2.9973488736998983-year channel
Price has run up to the upper trend line — the level it has repeatedly stalled at.
The next few months are read from the last 3 years, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (12% against 24%). The last 12 months stay as context: falling, −8% a year. A stock can be falling inside a channel that still rises over years; that is what this is, and only one of the two can be the near-term expectation. The target of US$256.99 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$205.38, from the last 3 years), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$191.32 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 3 years read from
- US$191.32 – US$205.38 Rising channel, +31% a year
- 12 months
- US$200.92 – US$223.22 Falling channel, −8% a year
- Position in that channel
- 85% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -31% from US$254.746 Jan 2026 → 27 Mar 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company2 of 6 Financial - Credit Services peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 40%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 82% of 9 comparable falls came back, typically in 127 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in January 2026: price fell 31% from 254.74 to 174.70 by March 2026, and has regained 40% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Capital One Finl Stock In The Last 5 Years”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 31% here have come back to the old high 82% of the time (9 comparable falls), typically in 127 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 256.99 within 271 days, reached 82% of the time in 9 comparable falls — about 0.09% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Capital One Finl Stock In The Last 5 Years — 1 Jan 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (3 years)
- Lower trend line (3 years)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$203.29
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$206.78; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$256.99
by 14 June 2027
Projected move
26.4%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in January 2026: price fell 31% from 254.74 to 174.70 by March 2026, and has regained 40% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Capital One Finl Stock In The Last 5 Years”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 31% here have come back to the old high 82% of the time (9 comparable falls), typically in 127 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 256.99 within 271 days, reached 82% of the time in 9 comparable falls — about 0.09% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 9 comparable falls in Financial - Credit Services, 82% were back at the old high within 127 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 10% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 254.74 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 7
- Lower line touches
- 5
- Fit confidence
- 24%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Capital One Financial Corporation
Capital One Financial Corporation, identified by its ticker COF, operates as a prominent financial services holding company. It oversees essential subsidiaries such as Capital One Bank (USA), National Association, and Capital One, National Association, which collectively offer a broad spectrum of financial products and services throughout the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company structures its extensive operations into three core divisions: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. Clients can utilize various deposit instruments, including checking accounts, money market accounts, negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts, savings accounts, and time deposits. Capital One's lending solutions are equally comprehensive, encompassing credit card financing, personal auto and retail banking loans, as well as significant commercial and multifamily real estate loans, and broader commercial and industrial credit facilities. Furthermore, the corporation provides credit and debit card issuance, robust online direct banking capabilities, and specialized treasury management and custodial services. Capital One serves a diverse clientele that includes individual consumers, small enterprises, and large commercial entities. It reaches these customers through a multi-channel approach, leveraging digital platforms, traditional physical branches, innovative café locations, and other distribution points, particularly within key states like New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Established in 1988, Capital One Financial Corporation maintains its primary executive offices in McLean, Virginia.
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Financial - Credit Services
- CEO
- Richard D. Fairbank
- Employees
- 78,400
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
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- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
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- Cash generation
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Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$127.79B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.02
- Avg volume
- 4.22M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 174.24-259.64
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
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- PEG
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- Price / sales
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- Price / book
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- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
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- Operating margin
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- Net margin
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- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
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Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.