CMI Cummins Inc.
Cummins Inc. (CMI) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Industrials. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below, rising on both timeframes
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
The next few months are read from the last 9 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (56% against 74%). The last 12 months stay as context: rising, +67% a year. The target of US$731.96 is below the nearest ceiling (US$828.30), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$604.29 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- US$604.29 – US$828.88 Rising channel, +30% a year
- Position in that channel
- -34% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -26% from US$724.7925 June 2026 → 15 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company2 of 5 Industrial - Machinery peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 0%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 83% of 10 comparable falls came back, typically in 89 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 26% from 724.79 to 537.64 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Navan Selected By Cummins To Provide Travel Support For Cummins Employees”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 26% here have come back to the old high 83% of the time (10 comparable falls), typically in 89 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 731.96 within 88 days, reached 83% of the time in 10 comparable falls — about 0.41% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Navan Selected By Cummins To Provide Travel Support For Cummins Employees — 25 June 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$527.41
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$537.64; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$731.96
by 13 Dec 2026
Projected move
38.8%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 26% from 724.79 to 537.64 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Navan Selected By Cummins To Provide Travel Support For Cummins Employees”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 26% here have come back to the old high 83% of the time (10 comparable falls), typically in 89 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 731.96 within 88 days, reached 83% of the time in 10 comparable falls — about 0.41% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 10 comparable falls in Industrial - Machinery, 83% were back at the old high within 89 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 12% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 724.79 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 2
- Fit confidence
- 74%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Cummins Inc.
Cummins Inc. is a global innovator in power solutions, responsible for the design, manufacturing, distribution, and maintenance of a broad array of diesel and natural gas engines, alongside cutting-edge electric and hybrid powertrains, and associated components. Its operations are strategically divided into five segments: Engine, Distribution, Components, Power Systems, and New Power. The company's extensive engine portfolio, available under the Cummins brand and others, powers a vast range of heavy and medium-duty applications, including commercial trucks, buses, recreational vehicles, light-duty automobiles, construction and mining equipment, marine vessels, railway systems, oil and gas operations, defense, and agriculture. Complementing these engines, Cummins provides both new and remanufactured parts and comprehensive servicing. Beyond its core engine offerings, Cummins delivers sophisticated power generation systems, high-horsepower engines, and specialized application engineering. It also offers custom-designed assemblies, retail and wholesale aftermarket components, and expert repair services conducted both in-shop and on-site. The company's technological scope extends to emission control solutions, turbochargers, a variety of filtration systems (for air, fuel, lubricants, and hydraulics), coolants, fuel additives, and advanced electronic control modules, sensors, and supporting software. Fuel systems, both new and reconditioned, are also a key part of their product line, as are automated transmissions. For electrical power generation, Cummins provides standby and primary power generators, complete with controls, paralleling systems, and transfer switches, featuring products like Stamford and AVK A/C alternators. Embracing future energy demands, the company is a frontrunner in electrified power systems, encompassing battery technologies, fuel cells, and hydrogen production. This includes a robust offering of filtration, aftertreatment, control, air handling systems, automated transmissions, electric power generation, and battery solutions. Cummins distributes its diverse product range to original equipment manufacturers, an extensive network of distributors and dealers, and various other clientele worldwide. Founded in 1919 as the Cummins Engine Company, the enterprise adopted its current name, Cummins Inc., in 2001 and maintains its headquarters in Columbus, Indiana.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial - Machinery
- CEO
- Jennifer W. Rumsey
- Employees
- 67,400
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$77.88B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.25
- Avg volume
- 985.86K
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 389.52-737.76
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.