CME CME Group Inc.
CME Group Inc. (CME) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Financial Services. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel, rising this year inside a falling 0.7425543270865044-year channel
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
The next few months are read from the last 9 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (7% against 68%). The last 12 months stay as context: rising, +4% a year. A stock can be falling inside a channel that still rises over years; that is what this is, and only one of the two can be the near-term expectation. The target of US$321.00 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$293.02, from the last 9 months), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$167.63 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 9 months read from
- US$167.63 – US$293.02 Falling channel, −13% a year
- 12 months
- US$264.26 – US$293.07 Rising channel, +4% a year
- Position in that channel
- 84% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -31% from US$317.172 Mar 2026 → 29 June 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company1 of 4 Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 57%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 85% of 1177 comparable falls came back, typically in 70 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in March 2026: price fell 31% from 317.17 to 218.56 by June 2026, and has regained 57% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “CME Announces Due To Technical Issues, CME Globex Metals, Natural Gas Futures And Options Markets Halted; All Day Orders And GTDS With Today's Date Will Be Cancelled; All GTDS That Have Been Acknowledged Will Remain Working”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 31% here have come back to the old high 85% of the time (1177 comparable falls), typically in 70 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 321.00 within 64 days, reached 85% of the time in 1177 comparable falls — about 0.26% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: CME Announces Due To Technical Issues, CME Globex Metals, Natural Gas Futures And Options Markets Halted; All Day Orders And GTDS With Today's Date Will Be Cancelled; All GTDS That Have Been Acknowledged Will Remain Working — 25 Feb 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (9 months)
- Lower trend line (9 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$272.51
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$275.07; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$321.00
by 19 Nov 2026
Projected move
17.8%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in March 2026: price fell 31% from 317.17 to 218.56 by June 2026, and has regained 57% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “CME Announces Due To Technical Issues, CME Globex Metals, Natural Gas Futures And Options Markets Halted; All Day Orders And GTDS With Today's Date Will Be Cancelled; All GTDS That Have Been Acknowledged Will Remain Working”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 31% here have come back to the old high 85% of the time (1177 comparable falls), typically in 70 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 321.00 within 64 days, reached 85% of the time in 1177 comparable falls — about 0.26% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 1177 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 85% were back at the old high within 70 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 10% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 317.17 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 4
- Fit confidence
- 68%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About CME Group Inc.
CME Group Inc., through its various subsidiaries, manages international marketplaces for the exchange of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. Its extensive array of product offerings includes futures and options linked to a broad spectrum of underlying assets, such as interest rates, equity indices, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals, alongside fixed-income products. The company additionally furnishes essential clearinghouse services, which entail the verification, settlement, and guarantee of futures, options, and cleared swap agreements traded across its venues. It also offers services for transaction processing and risk mitigation. Furthermore, the organization provides diverse market data services, encompassing both real-time and historical data feeds. Its wide-ranging client base consists of professional traders, financial institutions, both institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. Founded in Chicago, Illinois, in 1898, the enterprise was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. before rebranding as CME Group Inc. in July 2007.
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
- CEO
- Terrence A. Duffy
- Employees
- 3,875
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
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- Profitability
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- Financial health
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- Cash generation
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Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$98.92B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 0.28
- Avg volume
- 2.89M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 218.31-329.16
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
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- PEG
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- Price / sales
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- Price / book
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- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
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- Operating margin
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- Net margin
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- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
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Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.