CHKP Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Technology. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Mid-channel
Price is between the two trend lines. Nothing to act on yet.
Read from the last 15 months of history we hold: falling, drifting −39% a year. The target of US$137.97 is below the nearest ceiling (US$145.42), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$126.56 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 15 months read from
- US$126.56 – US$145.42 Falling channel, −39% a year
- Position in that channel
- 59% 0% at the floor, 100% at the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -52% from US$233.556 June 2025 → 30 Apr 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 12 Software - Infrastructure peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 21%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 79% of 17 comparable falls came back, typically in 156 days measured on its own peer group
The trend broke in June 2025: price fell 52% from 233.54 to 112.59 by April 2026, and has regained 21% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 52% here have come back to the old high 79% of the time (17 comparable falls), typically in 156 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 236.99 within 550 days, reached 79% of the time in 17 comparable falls — about 0.13% a day held.
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (15 months)
- Lower trend line (15 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$127.75
level as at 20 Sept 2026
Our target
US$137.97
by 30 Oct 2026
Projected move
8.0%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 5 touches on the ceiling, 3 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the 6% floor — the least a call has to be worth to be worth making, not what it aims at — 73% cleared it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 7 times so far, reaching target 71% of the time — too few to mean much on its own. The sell price comes from where this stock is projected to be, not from a minimum worth taking: the fitted path reaches 8% above the entry within 90 days, and of the sizes that path supports, 8% is the one that has returned the most per day of money tied up here — measured over the 10 times this entry has come up on this chart, reached 60% of the time, typically in 40 days. Smaller sizes got there sooner but paid less for the weeks they used; larger ones need a break above the projected ceiling, which is not the base case. The date published is whichever is later: that typical time, or the day the projected path itself reaches the price. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.
- Upper line touches
- 5
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 45%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. is a global provider specializing in the development, marketing, and support of comprehensive information technology security solutions. Their extensive portfolio addresses critical areas such as network, endpoint, and data security, alongside various management tools. A cornerstone of their offerings is the Check Point Infinity Architecture, a unified cybersecurity framework engineered to combat advanced 5th and 6th generation cyber threats. This architecture provides robust protection across a diverse range of environments, including traditional networks, individual endpoints, cloud infrastructures, workloads, Internet of Things (IoT) devices, and mobile platforms. The company also supplies powerful security gateways and sophisticated software platforms, scalable to meet the needs of organizations from small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) up to large enterprise data centers and telecommunications-grade environments. They are particularly focused on pioneering threat prevention technologies, including defenses against zero-day exploits. Furthermore, Check Point offers a suite of cloud-specific security solutions, encompassing cloud network protection, security posture management, workload protection, and web application security for APIs. For the remote workforce, their Check Point Harmony solution ensures secure connectivity and endpoint protection. Beyond their product line, Check Point delivers comprehensive technical customer support, professional services for product implementation, upgrades, and optimization, as well as educational training and certification programs for their technologies. Their products reach customers globally through a multifaceted distribution network, which includes distributors, resellers, system integrators, original equipment manufacturers, and managed security service providers. Established in 1993, Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. maintains its headquarters in Tel Aviv, Israel.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Infrastructure
- CEO
- Nadav Zafrir
- Employees
- 6,825
- Country
- IL
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$13.33B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 0.49
- Avg volume
- 1.47M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 112.23-210.66
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.