CAT Caterpillar Inc.
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Industrials. Listed on NASDAQ. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. On this symbol, 5 comparable calls have settled; 100% reached the published sell target. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below, rising on both timeframes
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
Read from the last 12 months of history we hold: rising, drifting more than +100% a year. The target of US$1,074 is below the nearest ceiling (US$1,276), so it does not depend on a breakout. What would overturn this: a close below US$835.03 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 12 months read from
- US$835.67 – US$1,278 Rising channel, more than +100% a year
- Position in that channel
- -12% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -27% from US$1,06330 June 2026 → 1 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 1 Agricultural - Machinery peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 1%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 87% of 1084 comparable falls came back, typically in 67 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 27% from 1062.62 to 779.10 by September 2026, and has regained 1% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “$1000 Invested In Caterpillar 15 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 27% here have come back to the old high 87% of the time (1084 comparable falls), typically in 67 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 1073.87 within 51 days, reached 87% of the time in 1084 comparable falls — about 0.73% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: $1000 Invested In Caterpillar 15 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today — 30 June 2026
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (12 months)
- Lower trend line (12 months)
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy at or below
US$782.55
level as at 16 Sept 2026
Our target
US$1,074
by 6 Nov 2026
Projected move
37.2%
gross, before costs
Price sits between our buy level and our target.
The trend broke in June 2026: price fell 27% from 1062.62 to 779.10 by September 2026, and has regained 1% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “$1000 Invested In Caterpillar 15 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 27% here have come back to the old high 87% of the time (1084 comparable falls), typically in 67 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 1073.87 within 51 days, reached 87% of the time in 1084 comparable falls — about 0.73% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 1084 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 87% were back at the old high within 67 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 9% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 1062.62 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
On this stock's own history these rules produced 5 settled calls, of which 5 reached target (100%), with an average best move of 7.3%. See the full record.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 78%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Caterpillar Inc.
Caterpillar Inc., a global enterprise founded in 1925 and headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois (having previously operated as Caterpillar Tractor Co. until its rebranding in 1986), is a premier manufacturer and vendor of heavy construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas power units, and industrial gas turbines across the world. The company's extensive offerings are organized into several operational divisions: Construction Industries: This segment delivers a broad spectrum of machinery for construction projects, including asphalt pavers, versatile backhoe and skid steer loaders, various sizes of excavators (from compact to heavy-duty), compactors, road-building equipment like cold planers and motorgraders, pipelayers, site preparation tractors, telehandlers, and utility vehicles, alongside a range of wheel loaders and track-type equipment. Resource Industries: Dedicated to the mining sector, this division supplies powerful equipment such as electric rope and hydraulic shovels, draglines, rotary drills, specialized hard rock vehicles, and a diverse fleet of mining, off-highway, and articulated trucks. It also offers longwall miners, wheel dozers, fleet management systems, autonomous vehicle solutions, crucial machinery components, selected work tools, and comprehensive safety and performance solutions for mining operations. Energy & Transportation: This segment focuses on power generation and propulsion systems. It provides reciprocating engines, generator sets, integrated power solutions, industrial turbines and associated services, remanufactured engines and parts, centrifugal gas compressors, and diesel-electric locomotives with related components and services. These products serve critical sectors including marine, oil and gas, industrial applications, and electric power generation. Financial Products: This segment supports customers with a variety of financial services, such as operating and finance leases, installment sale agreements, working capital loans, and wholesale financing schemes. It also offers insurance and risk management products tailored for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. All Other: This encompassing segment is responsible for manufacturing essential consumables and components like filters, fluids, undercarriage parts, and ground engaging tools.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Agricultural - Machinery
- CEO
- Joseph E. Creed
- Employees
- 118,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$360.55B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 1.59
- Avg volume
- 2.98M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 443-1073.46
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.