BROS Dutch Bros Inc.
Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) trend channel, buy level and 3-month target on Trade The Path. Sector: Consumer Cyclical. Listed on NYSE. Levels below are fitted to this ticker's own swing highs and lows (Theil–Sen, log-price), then projected 3 months. If this ticker has no settled sample yet, treat the numbers as a geometric read, not a track record. Information only, not financial advice.
Broken down below, going sideways this year inside a falling 1.5754309134956874-year channel
Price has closed below the channel. Support has failed — treat the buy target with caution.
The next few months are read from the last 19 months, the stretch whose swings the lines actually follow, because the last 12 months alone do not contain enough turns to fit reliably (21% against 56%). The last 12 months stay as context: going sideways, −2% a year. The target of US$86.41 sits above the nearest ceiling (US$73.80, from the last 19 months), so reaching it means breaking a line this stock has repeatedly turned at. What would overturn this: a close below US$46.95 — the floor of the channel being read — after which the trend, not the entry, is what was wrong.
- 19 months read from
- US$46.95 – US$73.80 Falling channel, −15% a year
- 12 months
- US$38.74 – US$77.18 Sideways channel, −2% a year
- Position in that channel
- -21% below the floor of it — 0% is the floor, 100% the ceiling
What broke this trend
- The fall
- -51% from US$85.3018 Feb 2025 → 15 Sept 2026
- Whose problem it was
- This company0 of 4 Restaurants peers fell with it
- Does it resolve?
- Temporary falls like it have resolved on the record
- Regained so far
- 0%of what it lost
- What the record says
- 64% of 662 comparable falls came back, typically in 115 days measured across every stock we hold history for, its peer group being too small
The trend broke in February 2025: price fell 51% from 85.30 to 41.98 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Dutch Bros Shares Spike 25% After Hours, Jim Cramer Says His Favorite Coffee Chain Is 'The Real Deal'”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 51% here have come back to the old high 64% of the time (662 comparable falls), typically in 115 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 86.41 within 114 days, reached 64% of the time in 662 comparable falls — about 0.93% a day held.
The buy and sell prices below are priced off this recovery rather than off the channel: it is the better expected return per day held once each is charged for the odds of working.
Reported at the time: Dutch Bros Shares Spike 25% After Hours, Jim Cramer Says His Favorite Coffee Chain Is 'The Real Deal' — 13 Feb 2025
Price history, with the path projected 3 months forward
- Daily close
- Upper trend line (19 months)
- Lower trend line (19 months)
- The same lines over the last 12 months
- Dashed after today: projected 3 months
- Our buy
- Our target
Suggested path
Buy now
US$41.35
last close · 16 Sept 2026
Channel buy is US$41.99; last close is the better price available now.
Our target
US$86.41
by 8 Jan 2027
Projected move
109.0%
gross, before costs
Last close is our buy — the best price available now.
The trend broke in February 2025: price fell 51% from 85.30 to 41.98 by September 2026, and has regained 0% of that fall since. Its peers did not fall with it, so this was about the company rather than its sector. The wire that week: “Dutch Bros Shares Spike 25% After Hours, Jim Cramer Says His Favorite Coffee Chain Is 'The Real Deal'”. Falls like it have resolved: falls of about 51% here have come back to the old high 64% of the time (662 comparable falls), typically in 115 days. On that record the fall is treated as temporary, and the trend lines are fitted to the regime it created rather than through it. Priced from that: 86.41 within 114 days, reached 64% of the time in 662 comparable falls — about 0.93% a day held. The entry is today's price, not a dip level: the fall is behind it and the evidence measured is what these recoveries paid from here, so waiting for a lower entry would be waiting for something the record does not say is coming. Of 662 comparable falls across every stock we hold history for, 64% were back at the old high within 115 days of the low, and the ones that got there gave up about 17% along the way — so expect to be underwater before it works. The target is the median level they regained, which is short of the old high of 85.30 because not all of them saw it again. It is a prediction and it is revised the same way any other is: if price loses its 50-day trend and stays below it, the recovery is treated as failed rather than delayed.
- Upper line touches
- 3
- Lower line touches
- 3
- Fit confidence
- 56%
- Fitted
- 16 Sept 2026
About Dutch Bros Inc.
Dutch Bros Inc., in collaboration with its subsidiaries, operates and licenses drive-thru establishments throughout the United States. The company's business model is divided into two primary divisions: its directly owned and managed shops, and its franchising and other related ventures. Customers are served through the firm's corporate-operated locations and its online platforms, utilizing brand names like Dutch Bros, Dutch Bros Coffee, Dutch Bros Rebel, and Blue Rebel. Established in 1992, Dutch Bros Inc. has its corporate headquarters situated in Grants Pass, Oregon.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- CEO
- Christine Barone
- Employees
- 27,000
- Country
- US
Scorecard
Our own pillar scores, computed from the fundamentals below. They are not Morningstar ratings — that data is licensed and we do not redistribute it.
- Valuation
- —
- Profitability
- —
- Financial health
- —
- Cash generation
- —
Key statistics
- Market cap
- US$7.59B
- Enterprise value
- —
- Beta
- 2.29
- Avg volume
- 3.90M
- Revenue per share
- —
- Dividend yield
- —
- 52-week range
- 43.29-74.024
- Exchange
- NYSE
Key ratios
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- PEG
- —
- Price / sales
- —
- Price / book
- —
- EV / EBITDA
- —
- Gross margin
- —
- Operating margin
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Current ratio
- —
- Quick ratio
- —
- Debt / equity
- —
- Interest cover
- —
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow
Trend lines are fitted statistically to past swing highs and lows and projected forward on the assumption the same rhythm continues. It often does not. This is information, not advice.