BHP BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)

Suggested path

The lines are drawn where this stock has actually turned: 5 touches on the ceiling, 9 on the floor, each fitted to the slope that catches the most of them. Buying one average daily range below its 50-day mean, on heavier volume than usual and while it is still above its 200-day mean, has come up 791 times; measured against the rule’s own 6% yardstick, 73% reached it, typically in 34 days, with price going about 5% against the entry along the way (63% in the worst case we have on record). Trades that have not reached the target within 3 months are counted as misses, whatever they are worth at the time. The prices above are this stock’s own — its average, its volatility — but the setup is the same one we apply everywhere: derived on eight unrelated tickers, then confirmed on 87 others it was never fitted to. We deliberately do not tune it to each stock: doing so scores worse on history the tuning never saw — 58% against 71% — because it fits the past rather than the future. On this stock the setup has come up 2 times so far, reaching target 100% of the time — too few to mean much on its own. The sell price is predicted from this stock’s own setups: of the 11 times this entry has come up here, 4% is the size that returned the most per day of money tied up — reached 91% of the time, typically in 10 days. It is a prediction, so it can be revised: if the run tops out before it gets there, the target is cut to what is actually on the table and you are told the same day. An ordinary pullback is not treated as topping out — those go on to make a new high about 8 times in 10, so they are ridden through. What triggers the revision is price closing below its 50-day trend and staying there, after which the odds of recovery fall to roughly 3 in 10.

Upper line touches

5

Lower line touches

9

Fit confidence

66%

Fitted

4 Aug 2026